991 FXUS63 KGID 050909 AFDGID Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Hastings NE 309 AM CST Sun Nov 5 2017 .SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight) Issued at 308 AM CST Sun Nov 5 2017 Southwesterly flow remains in place in the upper level across the area early this morning, thanks to broad troughing over the western CONUS. Satellite imagery showing a low pressure system sliding east across central Canada. This system has resulted in some light precipitation in the region, and some light precip was reported at ODX, but otherwise has been off to the NNW and SE of the CWA. The main impact on the CWA from this system is with its accompanying sfc cold front, with the switch to northerly winds area wide happening with in the last hour or so. As expected winds have been on the gusty side, reaching near 25 MPH at times. Current temps range from the mid 30s to mid 40s. The forecast for today/evening remains dry, upper level flow turning more zonal between the departing system to the north and another digging into the Pac NW. Later tonight, there continues to be the chance for precipitation, with models showing a subtle shortwave disturbance sliding through the region. The models continue to differ with whether or not the CWA sees any precipitation. The ECMWF is on the higher side of things, others showing no QPF at all, keeping the better chances to the NNW. Decided to keep measurable precip out of the forecast, but left the mention of flurries going CWA-wide. The gusty northerly winds will gradually diminish, mainly during the afternoon hours as higher pressure builds in from the north. Will be a cooler day than yesterday, current forecast highs are near 40 in the north to near 50 in the far south. .LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday) Issued at 308 AM CST Sun Nov 5 2017 The forecast through the daytime hours on Monday remains dry, though if any precip does develop tonight, there's a small chance some could linger into the morning. Zonal flow remains in place aloft, with focus turning west as a sharply tilted trough is pushing through the northern Rockies. Flow on the back side of a departing surface high will turn winds more southerly through the day, but speeds will remain on the lighter side, topping out around 10 MPH. Not expecting a notable change in temperatures, with forecast highs in the lower/mid 40s. Next chance for precipitation still falls in the Monday night- Tuesday night time frame, and there continues to be a few uncertainties. General agreement among models isn't too bad, showing this system shifting southeast with time on Tuesday, developing a closed low at different points. By 00Z Wednesday, this low looks to be located roughly over SWrn WY, then continuing it's southeastward push into CO by 12Z Wed. During the day Wed, models show the low filling as the whole system works through the central/srn Plains. Monday night into Tuesday, models showing the potential for precipitation (including snow) to work into at least the western portions of the CWA. While the main system is still off to the west, they are showing a bit of mid level convergence developing, as well as the exit region of a strong upper level jet streak nosing in from the west. The ECMWF continues to be more aggressive with QPF compared to other models, at this point the forecast remains on the lighter side with any precip/snow amounts. Later in the day Tues/Tues night, as the main system pushes through, models are in decent agreement showing the better chances for precipitation sliding to the south-southwest of the CWA, but small chance PoPs remain in those CWA areas closest to those higher chances. Along with precip chances, this system will usher in another surface cold front, with models showing it making its main push through the CWA Monday night. Cooler high pressure settles into the area from the north, and as a result, Tuesday is forecast to be the coldest day of the week. A good chunk of the NNW CWA may struggle to get out of the mid 30s. Temps look to rebound back into the 40s for Wednesday. For the latter half of the week, upper level zonal flow returns to the region. Outside of some small PoPs Saturday associated with a shortwave disturbance crossing the Central Plains, the forecast is dry. Highs generally in the mid 40s to lower 50s are forecast for Thur-Sat. && .AVIATION...(For the 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS through 06Z Monday) Issued at 1220 AM CDT Sun Nov 5 2017 A surface cold front will continue pushing south through the area this morning, winds at both terminals have switched to the north. Expecting gusty conditions to develop in the next hour or so, gusts of 20 to 25 MPH will be possible through a good chunk of the day. MVFR ceilings will also be a concern, and have those in the TAF until mid morning, though confidence in when VFR conditions returns is a little uncertain. Kept things VFR through the end of the period, with wind diminishing late in the day and turning more northeasterly. && .GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...None. KS...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...ADP LONG TERM...ADP AVIATION...ADP