494 FXUS61 KRLX 041551 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 1151 AM EDT Sat Nov 4 2017 .SYNOPSIS... A disturbance will provide a chance of showers today, especially in the mountains. A front will meander back and forth across the area into next week with periods of showers and thunderstorms. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 325 AM Saturday... Models showing a disturbance lifting northward across the forecast area today. Considerable differences in timing and on how far west the precipitation reaches. With a southeast wind causing downsloping on the western slopes, will keep pops small west of the mountains. This disturbance pulls out this evening. Another weaker impulse moves through tonight. Not much in the way of dynamics and southeast winds continue, so will keep pops small. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... As of 340 AM Saturday... Sunday will feature an isolated morning shower threat, followed by significant warmth during the afternoon. Upper 70s to near 80 are forecast for much of the lowlands with HTS/CRW standing the best chance at touching 80 degrees. The warmth will come with gusty southwest winds and some lingering clouds, but given the time of year...it should be a wow kind of afternoon. A strong cold front will approach Sunday night...making inroads into southeast Ohio during toward morning Monday. Strong to severe storms associated with the front will tend to weaken on approach...though we cannot rule out some damaging winds across Perry/Morgan/Vinton. SPC currently has those locations in the marginal risk with slight just to the northwest. It will be a very mild night across the area with temps running 5 degrees above normal daytime highs as boundary layer mixing keeps the diurnal range quite small. The front continues its track through the remainder of the area on Monday with showers and a few storms. Temps will stay very mild during the morning, but gradually fall in the afternoon, especially along and west of the Ohio River. The boundary will begin to slow down during the evening as the upper heights flatten, with low stratus and perhaps some drizzle in the vicinity of the front. With the boundary draped across southern areas, we will watch for a wave of low pressure to develop across the Tennessee Valley and move across the southern half of the forecast area Tuesday morning, spreading rain back into the picture. A s/w trof will help to amplify the pattern enough so that the front gets pushed south Tuesday night, allowing drier and much cooler air to filter in from the north. Expect valley fog to develop quickly as areas begin to clear, mainly across southeast Ohio. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 410 AM Saturday... Colder and drier air dominates the region during the extended with an amplified eastern CONUS trof. As a result, temps will actually be a bit below normal for a change. && .AVIATION /16Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 600 AM Saturday... Stratus deck expanding rapidly northward early this morning. Also have some fog associated with the lower stratus deck over southern and eastern WV. As winds shift around to the east/southeast, downsloping on the western side of the mountains should erode the stratus deck at locations such as EKN/CKB/CRW. The southeast winds should create MVFR to VFR clouds west of the mountains later this morning, while some southeast upslope low stratus remains on the eastern slopes. A disturbance will lift northward across the area today producing some showers with restrictions, with the best chances over the mountains. For tonight, generally VFR conditions should prevail west of the mountains. Eastern slopes of the mountains can expect a stratus deck. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing of the stratus deck dissapating west of the mountains could vary. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 EDT 1HRLY 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 CRW CONSISTENCY M M H H H H H H H H H M HTS CONSISTENCY M M M M H H H H H H H M BKW CONSISTENCY M M H H H H H H H H H L EKN CONSISTENCY M M M H H H H H H M M L PKB CONSISTENCY M M M H H M M M M M M L CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M AFTER 18Z SUNDAY... Widespread IFR conditions not expected. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...RPY/30 NEAR TERM...RPY SHORT TERM...30 LONG TERM...30 AVIATION...RPY