986 
FXUS63 KFSD 032310
AFDFSD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD
610 PM CDT Fri Nov 3 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 414 PM CDT Fri Nov 3 2017

Mid level front has focus band of snow just north of our forecast 
area this afternoon, and do not anticipate much southward drift to 
this through the overnight, possibly sagging into parts of southwest 
Minnesota briefly as the front exits to the east. The other items to 
watch for tonight is an influx of low level moisture across eastern 
portions of the CWA later tonight. Weak lift through the moist layer 
as a mid-level wave slides across the area. This combined with the 
lack of moisture in the ice-producing mid-levels may result in some 
drizzle across our far east, though temperatures by late tonight are 
expected to be above freezing so should not see any icing. 

Wave exits to the east by daybreak Saturday, which should be the 
nicer day of the weekend in the wake of a warm front lifting through 
the area. Do not expect to see abundant sunshine, as the low clouds 
may linger across the northeast into the afternoon. However, with 
the warming low-levels, should see temperatures near to above normal 
in the upper 40s northeast to upper 50s southwest.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Friday)
Issued at 414 PM CDT Fri Nov 3 2017

Early part of next week will see a couple periods with the potential 
for light precipitation, Saturday night and again Monday. Saturday 
night will see a cold front move through the region, driven by a 
broad mid-upper level trough over the Canadian Prairies, with lift 
aided by a southern stream jet over the Central Plains. Temperatures 
surface/aloft generally supportive of either rain or snow. However, 
while the models are in fairly good agreement regarding the timing 
of precipitation, they all indicate periods of drying aloft, so may 
have brief periods of freezing precip mentioned on the tail end of 
the precipitation late Saturday night, though expect any icing to be 
minimal, if any. Latest models are a bit faster with moving the cold 
front and wave through the area by early Sunday, so Sunday should be 
largely dry across the area, but with highs about 10-20 degrees 
cooler than Saturday. Also, with the faster timing, do not expect 
winds on Sunday to be quite as breezy as previously forecast much of 
the day.

Another mid level front slides across the northern part of the 
forecast area on Monday, ahead of an elongated wave dropping out of 
Canada. This should produce some light snow mainly north of I-90, 
where daytime temperatures will struggle to top freezing. At this 
point, amounts look to remain on the lighter side, generally less 
than an inch. However, with frontogenetic forcing in the area, may 
have to watch for development of a tighter band which could produce 
slightly higher amounts. 

The rest of the week looks fairly benign, though will have to watch 
late in the week as some models beginning to show a stronger trough 
moving across the region. Temperatures somewhat in question late in 
the week, as models showing very little agreement on the pattern at 
that range. Some solutions are quite a bit cooler than the blended 
guidance, while others are a shade warmer. Thus, made no changes to 
blended forecast at this point.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening)
Issued at 608 PM CDT Fri Nov 3 2017

The 00Z TAFs will reflect conditions lowering into the MVFR range
beginning overnight tonight, and lasting into Saturday before
clearing from west to east Saturday afternoon. IFR to LIFR is
expected east of I 29 in southwest MN and extreme northwest IA
under drizzle and very low stratus. This will be monitored closely
as it is a possibility that these conditions could move into KSUX
and KFSD very late tonight and Saturday morning. Something to keep
an eye on. 

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.
IA...None.
NE...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...MJ