108 FXUS61 KRLX 020048 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 848 PM EDT Wed Nov 1 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Light rain will taper off across the region overnight as a warm frontal boundary lifts north. Several disturbances pass late this week and this weekend with periods of showers. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 845 PM Wednesday...Updated PoP based on current radar and observations. This update lowers PoP just about everywhere except for NW'rn CWA, where Perry County Ohio continues to see light rain with warm front just to the southeast. Front continues to slowly drift northward, but light rain may persist several more hours yet across SE Ohio. As of 6PM Wednesday...Actually did an update to PoP at about 5 PM based on radar and trends. Shower activity had really decreased after the warm front went through, so lowered PoP across much of the region, but added a slight chance in the mountains. As of 320 PM Wednesday... A surface warm front continues to lift northward, causing surface winds to shift out of the south. This will bring in warmer air through the overnight period, likely resulting in early evening minimum temperatures before gradually rising through the remainder of the night. Light rain will also wane with time, coming to an end by Thursday morning. County zones further north and west are areas most likely to be affected by any patchy rain. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... As of 320 PM Wednesday... The period begins with a progressive pattern in place over the northern flow. A weak wave pushes through the central Appalachian region. Towards the surface, high pressure settled over the southeastern CONUS will set up return flow with moisture flowing northward into the OH Valley region. This as another wave moves into the area will set up another bout of rainfall with a thunder potential as well for Friday and into Friday night. Thus, have put a chance of thunder across the area for Friday and Friday night. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 320 PM Wednesday... By Saturday, the progressive pattern in place will continue as another wave ejects into the region bringing another bout of rainfall across the Appalachians. The moist flow will continue into the day on Sunday with rainfall chances persisting. A brief break in the rain occurs Sunday night before the amplitude increases Monday morning as a strong shortwave takes aim into the Great Lakes and OH Valley for Monday and Tuesday. Between Monday evening and Tuesday, a strong cold front will push through the area with likely chance of rainfall expected. In fact the strength of the front on Monday into Monday night will pose a threat of thunderstorms. This has been put into the forecast as well. Unclear at this point, will be the severity of the storms and also the potential of heavy rains given the amount of precip expected to this point. && .AVIATION /01Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 720 PM Wednesday... Warm front has pushed through the region, keeping showers now to our north. VFR clouds and strong low level flow should should keep the development of any fog at a minimum, so have VFR conditions through the forecast period for now. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: There is a little concern with the wet ground that some MVFR fog could form overnight. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE THU 11/02/17 UTC 1HRLY 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 EDT 1HRLY 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M AFTER 00Z FRIDAY... Isolated IFR possible in showers Thursday night and into the weekend. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JS/MZ NEAR TERM...JS/MPK SHORT TERM...MZ LONG TERM...MZ AVIATION...MPK