855 FXUS61 KRLX 011802 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV Issued by National Weather Service JACKSON KY 202 PM EDT Wed Nov 1 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Showery conditions return today, with a gradual warming trend. Several disturbances pass late this week and this weekend with periods of showers. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 932 AM Wednesday... A mid level disturbance and associated a warm front will lift northward through the region today, with the surface boundary exiting our area by late this afternoon to early evening. Temperatures have responded well to decent WAA, rising well above the freezing mark. While the threat of light rain will continue into tonight, the best chances continue to be realized across areas along the Ohio river and points westward. However, coverage is expected to gradually taper off through the afternoon from south to north. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY/... As of 300 AM Wednesday... Shower activity should be on the decrease Thursday as a lull in upper level forcing moves across. Attention then turns to a cold front and upper level shortwave which will cross Friday with some showers lingering into Friday night. Temperatures will be running well above normal for early November with highs on Thursday topping 70F across much of the lowlands. Not a lot of punch with the cold front, so going with highs in the mid to upper 60s on Friday. Lows in the 40s and 50s keep things all rain, even overnight. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 300 AM Wednesday... The weak cold front from the short term doesn't make it very far to the south and east before it starts lifting back through as a warm front on Saturday. GFS and ECMWF differ some on keeping some energy around Sunday into Monday, with the ECMWF holding all precipitation to our north and west, while GFS has a bit more moisture and some showers during this time. Kept some low end POPs in due to this. Stronger cold front moves through early in the week... ECMWF has it Monday afternoon, while GFS delays it to Monday night into early Tuesday. Went with a fairly broad bush likely POPs until timing becomes more evident. Did include some thunder ahead of this front...mainly Monday afternoon. Stayed close to consensus blend for temperatures throughout the period. && .AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 202 PM Wednesday... Light rain continues to fall across portions of the area this afternoon, especially within a narrow corridor form HTS to PKB. CIGS and VSBYS have generally remained VFR and expect this trend will continue, though KHTS and KPKB may flirt with some high end MVFR VSBYS overnight due to light mist. Light rain is expected to gradually taper off through the late afternoon and evening. However, models and guidance suggest some patchy light rain could redevelop overnight affecting some of our terminals. For now went more optimistic and kept predominant weather groups dry. Generally light and variable winds will become southerly as a surface warm frontal boundary lifts north through the afternoon. Southerly winds of about 5 kts or less overnight will increase through the day Thursday to around 10 kts. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium to High ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing of MVFR conditions this morning may vary from forecast. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 EDT 1HRLY 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H M M M H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H M M M M M M H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H M M H EKN CONSISTENCY H H H M M M M M H H H H PKB CONSISTENCY H H M M M H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H M M M M M H H H H H AFTER 18Z THURSDAY... Isolated IFR possible in showers into the weekend. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JS/MZ NEAR TERM...JS/RAY SHORT TERM...MZ LONG TERM...MZ AVIATION...RAY