716 FXUS65 KTFX 301642 AFDTFX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Great Falls MT 1042 AM MDT Mon Oct 30 2017 .UPDATE... Morning forecast is on track. No updates. Brusda && .SYNOPSIS... A northerly flow aloft will reside over the region for the next few days. Afternoon temperatures will warm to near normal on Tuesday as gusty west winds develop. However, a cold front will move southward through the region Wednesday night and through the day on Wednesday, producing areas of rain and snow. Additional periods of snow are possible Thursday through Saturday, along with a few more days of colder temperatures starting on Sunday. && .AVIATION... Updated 1645z. Generally VFR conditions will prevail over the region through the period with areas of mid/high level clouds. However, some low clouds around Lewistown should burn off by mid afternoon. Gusty west winds will develop over the northern Plains on Tuesday afternoon. Brusda && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 449 AM MDT Mon Oct 30 2017/ Today through Tuesday...This period appears to be the calm before the storm. Lingering clouds and flurries will diminish this morning, leaving mostly clear skies for this afternoon and tonight. Much cooler than normal temperatures today and tonight, will warm closer to normal on Tuesday as westerly downslope winds increase ahead of an approaching Canadian cold front. Mid level winds of 40 and 50 kt during the day along the Rocky Mountain Front could translate to 45 to 55 mph wind gusts there. Gusts farther out onto the plains will likely gust to between 25 and 35 mph. A few showers may also develop along the Hi-Line Tuesday afternoon as the front nears the border. Coulston Tuesday night through Saturday night...Increasing confidence that an active pattern with colder temperatures can be expected to start November. Clipper system still looks to bring an initial cold front Tuesday night into Wednesday. Dry and relatively warm air ahead of this system looks to keep mainly rain and mountain snow showers initially with this front. By noon Wednesday mainly snow is possible for the Hi-Line area and the Rocky Mountain Front. Along a line from Great Falls to Lewistown and south remains some uncertainty of rain to a rain/snow mix for the lower elevation areas. Some models hint high amounts of QPF may cool the atmosphere enough to bring a quick shot of snow during the day Wednesday. This would mainly effect the Helena to Great Falls to Lewistown areas. Areas south of this line could still see snow mix with rain at times. 1 to 4 inches of snow will be possible for central and northern areas on Wednesday, with 6 inches to near a foot possible in the mountains, and little accumulations for the south. The mentioned cold front stalls Wednesday night and turns into a stationary front. Where this front stalls will see continued light snow through Wednesday night. Right now that appears to be across western and southern portions, possibly into central portions. An upper level low across the Pac NW then sends in moist overrunning southwest flow for Thursday and Friday. The result will be widespread snow across the region. With lingering north to northeast flow at the surface, some higher upslope amounts of snow will be possible for central portions and along the Rocky Mountain Front each day Thursday and Friday. Saturday into Saturday night we see the mentioned low brush across our region bringing continued chances for widespread snow. Previous models indicated a dry and warm air intrusion ahead of this system, providing a chance for freezing rain or sleet. Model runs today kept this warmer air more to the southern portions of the state and into WY/ID. Left out the chances for freezing precip, although will continue to monitor. Three day snow totals (Thursday through Saturday) have the potential to be moderate to high, especially across the Rocky Mountain Front where 1 to 2 feet of snow are possible. Areas across northern and central Montana could also see 6 to 8 inches of snow, mainly from Helena to White Sulphur Spring and northward to the Hi-Line. This is still a developing storm so check back for updates. Temperatures will also become well below normal, except across areas in the warmer side of the stationary front (mainly sw MT). Highs only in the 20s and 30s are expected with lows possibly in the teens, with highs in the 30s and 40s across the south. Anglin Sunday through Monday...The winter weather system will move east across Montana during this period, causing showers to gradually diminish. However, temperatures will remain around 20 degrees below normal through Sunday night. Westerly downslope surface winds will increase on Monday, which will help warm temperatures, but warming will be minimal due to expected widespread snow cover. Coulston && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... GTF 39 28 51 35 / 0 0 10 50 CTB 40 23 50 30 / 0 0 10 60 HLN 39 20 49 34 / 0 0 10 30 BZN 37 16 52 34 / 0 0 10 40 WEY 39 13 41 23 / 0 0 10 20 DLN 35 17 51 33 / 0 0 0 10 HVR 39 21 47 30 / 0 0 30 70 LWT 35 21 49 32 / 10 0 10 70 && .TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ weather.gov/greatfalls