273 FXUS61 KRLX 301001 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 601 AM EDT Mon Oct 30 2017 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure early this week. Showery conditions return by mid- week, with a warming trend. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 600 AM Monday... Allowed wind advisory and winter weather advisory to expire as observations show advisory criteria wind gusts and accumulating snow have ended. Also lingered clouds a bit longer across the western slopes and mountains, and adjusted temperatures accordingly early this morning. As of 130 AM Monday... Upper level trough axis has passed to the east, and clouds/precip will gradually be on the decrease this morning. Some breaks in the clouds already across the Tri-state, so have lowered temperatures early this morning by several degrees there. A 500mb ripple will move through late today into tonight, with a weak trough/back door cold front at the surface. Increased clouds with this feature, and included a brief time of slight chance POPs across the far NW corner of the forecast area this evening. Both NAM and GFS are now showing this... so may even need to bring these POPs a bit farther east into tonight. Despite some sunshine midday, stuck on the cooler side of guidance for today. Blended towards a bias-corrected consensus blend for lows tonight. Ended up a bit cooler than the previous forecast across the NW where clouds should be decreasing after midnight, and a touch warmer south and east where clouds will be thicker. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... As of 235 AM Monday... Sfc high pressure ridge keeps dry conditions through at least the early morning hours on Wednesday. Pops and clouds increase throughout the day on Wednesday as next system approaches. Model blend temperatures looked reasonable throughout. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 250 AM Monday... A series of fronts will cross the region Wednesday night and into the weekend keeping the chance for showers in the forecast throughout the period. Temperatures may be cold enough Wednesday night to start out as mix of frozen precip but will quickly change to all rain the rest of the way. Kept a blend of model temps throughout. && .AVIATION /10Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 600 AM Monday... Gradually improving conditions expected through this morning as any lingering drizzle or snow showers come to an end and ceilings break up and lift. MVFR should linger longest --into mid morning -- in the NW mountainous counties. Winds will continue to be gusty out of the west to southwest today. Opted to not include restrictions in river valley fog tonight with dry air in place and some clouds passing by. Models support this, but warm water may still result in localized fog. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: MVFR ceilings may linger longer than currently forecast. May get some localized valley fog late tonight. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 EDT 1HRLY 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H M M HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H M M BKW CONSISTENCY M M M M H H H H H H M M EKN CONSISTENCY H H H M M M H H H H M M PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H M M CKB CONSISTENCY H M M M H H H H H H M M AFTER 12Z TUESDAY... Morning IFR fog in river valleys possible Wednesday morning. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...Freeze Warning until 10 AM EDT this morning for WVZ005>011- 013>020-024>034-039-040-515-517-519. OH...Freeze Warning until 10 AM EDT this morning for OHZ067-076-087. KY...Freeze Warning until 10 AM EDT this morning for KYZ101>103-105. VA...Freeze Warning until 10 AM EDT this morning for VAZ003-004. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JS/MZ NEAR TERM...MZ SHORT TERM...JS LONG TERM...JS AVIATION...MZ