667 FXUS61 KRLX 280056 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 853 PM EDT Fri Oct 27 2017 .SYNOPSIS... A strong upper trough/low with associated cold front crosses Saturday into Sunday. High pressure early next week. Another front Thursday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM SATURDAY MORNING/... As of 850 PM Friday... Very strong temperature gradient currently across the frontal boundary, with temperatures 4 counties behind the front currently in the 30s. Therefore, will lower overnight lows in the western counties, tightening the gradient behind the front. As of 730 PM Friday... Updating to better represent the wind shift with the cold front tonight and Saturday. As of 220 PM Friday... Strong warm air advection out ahead of a cold front continues this afternoon with nearly the entire region climbing into the 70s with the exception of the mountains. Enjoy the nice conditions while you can, as a sharp contrast from today to tomorrow will occur with the passing of the aforementioned cold front. Cold front as of 18Z was coming through Western Ohio and will be entering the Ohio Valley later this evening. This is an anafront, so there is a broad area of light to moderate rainfall and a whole lot of clouds behind the front. Because of this we have a blustery and damp day ahead tomorrow. The front pushes through the Eastern Forecast Area early tomorrow morning and temperatures will begin to drop, with many locations actually reaching their high temperature for the day around sunrise. The rain and clouds will continue through the afternoon as temperatures drop down into the lower 40s by early tomorrow evening. The front progresses through the region until it reaches the mountains and then a wave develops along the front and it gets hung up. For this reason, have kept PoPs Categorical through the end of the near term period across our Eastern Forecast Area, with the heaviest rainfall to fall in the mountains after 00Z Sunday. && .SHORT TERM /8 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... As of 330 PM Friday... A temporary pattern change to colder and unsettled weather this weekend as an amplifying upper trough pushes a strong cold front eastward across the area Saturday, with the front stalling just east of the mountains Saturday evening. This will allow a wave of low pressure to ride up the front Saturday night and Sunday morning. Look for falling temperatures behind the front. With the wave of low pressure, the rain will continue Saturday night into Sunday, mainly over central and eastern West Virginia. The colder air will be enough to change the rain to snow in the mountains later Saturday night and Sunday, while precip will tend to stay as a cold rain in the milder boundary layer over the lowlands. However, in the mountains, by the time rain changes to snow early Sunday, the heavier precip will be lifting out. This will leave more of a lighter nature to the precip as we progress on Sunday. Right now, most of the snow accumulations in the mountains will be mainly above 2000 feet and on the order of 1 to 3 inches before coming to an end Sunday night. In the low lands, showers will be tapering off later Sunday as the system pulls east. Temperatures will be much below normal for most of the weekend, especially Sunday. As high pressure takes control Sunday night, there may be a freeze area wide. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 355 PM Friday... High pressure builds in through Tuesday night, bringing dry weather, and shifts overhead early Wednesday bringing in warm southwesterly flow. Models are currently in agreement for embedded disturbances from mid-week onward, though timing and intensity differences are aplenty, so opted for more widespread PoPs. Went with a general blend of temperatures beyond Wednesday given uncertainty in the position of this boundary, but a definite warming trend is on tap for this period. && .AVIATION /01Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 655 PM Friday... VFR conditions will continue this evening. A strong cold front will then push through the region overnight and Saturday. Rain with MVFR/IFR conditions can be expected for numerous hours behind the front. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High this evening, then medium behind the front. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Restrictions in rain behind the front could vary. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE SAT 10/28/17 UTC 1HRLY 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 EDT 1HRLY 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H M L BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H L CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M AFTER 00Z SUNDAY... Periods of IFR possible in rain Saturday night into Sunday. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JMV/MPK NEAR TERM...RPY/MPK SHORT TERM...JMV LONG TERM...JMV AVIATION...RPY