038 FXUS64 KCRP 201746 AFDCRP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX 1246 PM CDT Fri Oct 20 2017 .DISCUSSION... Have issued a Coastal Flood Advisory for Nueces and Kleberg counties until 02Z this evening. Tides have been persistently running close to 1 foot above normal. This will lead to tides of approx. 2 feet above MSL this afternoon during high tide. && .PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /Issued 1213 PM CDT Fri Oct 20 2017/ DISCUSSION... See aviation discussion below for the 18Z TAF's. AVIATION... A couple of sites continue to report MVFR CIG's, with the remainder of the area reporting VFR conditions. VFR conditions are expected through the afternoon into tonight. By late tonight into early Sat morning, patchy fog and low stratus will lead to IFR conditions, mainly for ALI and VCT and generally MVFR for LRD and VCT. VFR conditions are then expected to resume by mid morning Sat. There is a slight chance to chance of mainly shra's...possibly a few tsra's...across the far eastern Coastal Bend and over the waters overnight and into Sat. Therefore have included a VCSH for CRP and VCT for Sat morning. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /Issued 929 AM CDT Fri Oct 20 2017/ DISCUSSION... Patchy fog that has developed this morning should be short lived and begin lifting within the hour. Otherwise, a few showers are expected today, mainly across the VCT area. A clap of thunder can not be ruled out. Winds are forecast to become more southerly today. This should keep tide levels from reaching 2FT above MSL at high tide this afternoon for area beaches south of Port Aransas, although the tides may be just shy of 2FT MSL. Will continue to monitor for the possibility of tides reaching the 2FT mark. If warranted, a Coastal Flood Advisory may be issued for this afternoon. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /Issued 636 AM CDT Fri Oct 20 2017/ DISCUSSION...Update for 12z Aviation. AVIATION...Worst flight rules to occur at beginning and end of TAF period. Areas of low CIGs and poor VSBYs struggling to dvlp this mrng...but drier air aloft is spreading Nwrd early this mrng and should allow for a small wind of reduced vsbys around/shortly after sunrise. Poor flight rules should then improve by mid to late mrng with VFR prevailing across the entire area this aftn and evening. Another round of reduced vsbys and low CIGs xpctd late tonight. Iso SHRA possible today vcnty KVCT...and late tonight vcnty KCRP/KVCT but impacts should be minimal. Weak/vrb/calm sfc winds early becmg weak SErly sfc winds. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /Issued 405 AM CDT Fri Oct 20 2017/ SHORT TERM (Today through Saturday)... Modest WAA regime early this morning in aiding in development of isolated showers across the Coastal Plains. Llvl wind fields are are prog to veer to a more southerly direction this morning...with drier air just above the surface spreading northward at that time. Once that occurs...the ongoing showers should begin to dissipate with llvl cloud cover eventually mixing out this morning. Some lingering llvl moisture may persist along the W Gulf and into the Victoria area where a more persistent chance of a shower may exist. Axis of slightly deeper moisture is prog to develop along the coast late tonight which should result in renewed shower development for the Coastal Counties northward to the Victoria area....especially where any moisture convergence bands can setup. Showers should end during the day Saturday across the Coastal Plains as the H85 to H7 wind profile veers more southwesterly. Chances of showers and perhaps a thunderstorm or two will continue into the afternoon for the NE CWA where greater instability and a more conducive wind profile (for precip) will exist. H85 temps are prog to warm to around 17/18 C today across the region (and even warmer on Saturday). With thinning cloud cover and southerly flow...these warmer temps aloft should be able to mix down to the sfc...resulting in greater max temps than the past couple of days. Regarding coastal flooding...tidal levels may approach 2 ft above MSL with today's major high tide cycle. But with wind fields prog to become more SSE than ESE...I have decided to hold off on a Coastal Flood Advisory at this time as the veering wind should begin to aid in negating greater wave runup. LONG TERM (Saturday night through Thursday)... A strong short wave trough will be diving southeast through the southern plains Saturday night. The associated cold front will be pushing southward through Texas Saturday night and be near the northern counties of the forecast area by 12Z Sunday. Moisture axis will be over the Gulf waters in advance of the front along with moisture pooling along the boundary with models indicating PWAT values around 1.7 inches. Scattered convection will be possible over the Gulf Saturday night along with scattered convection moving into the northern counties as the front approaches. Chance for rain will be higher in a brief window Sunday morning as the cold front pushes through the area. Will continue to show likely PoPs northeast to slight chance PoPs far west Sunday morning. Cooler and drier air will quickly move into the region by late afternoon. SCA conditions will exist over the Gulf waters Sunday night into Monday behind the front. The short wave trough could develop into an upper low over the Mississippi/Alabama Monday. Another strong upper trough will dig south through the central plains Monday night into Tuesday with a deep trough forming over the Great Lakes region Tuesday. Another surge in high pressure will arrive Tuesday afternoon with winds increasing again over the coastal waters to SCA levels. Surface high pressure area will settle into the region Wednesday night. Mild temperatures will be in store for the work week with the coolest readings on Wednesday. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Corpus Christi 88 72 89 74 89 / 10 20 20 20 40 Victoria 86 72 89 72 85 / 20 20 30 40 60 Laredo 90 71 92 73 87 / 10 10 10 10 20 Alice 90 70 91 72 91 / 10 10 10 10 30 Rockport 85 76 87 76 86 / 10 30 30 30 60 Cotulla 89 70 92 71 86 / 10 10 10 20 30 Kingsville 91 72 91 73 92 / 10 10 10 20 30 Navy Corpus 87 77 88 76 88 / 10 20 30 30 40 && .CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...Coastal Flood Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening For the following zones: Kleberg...Nueces. GM...None. && $$ TE/81...SHORT TERM