288 FXUS65 KTFX 150928 AFDTFX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Great Falls MT 328 AM MDT Sun Oct 15 2017 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure at the surface and aloft over the western United States will maintain dry conditions with warming temperatures through Tuesday before a series of Pacific weather systems move rapidly east across the region later this week. Gusty west winds will continue across portions of north central Montana today through Monday with increasing winds in all areas Monday night and Tuesday. Strong winds are possible across portions of north central Montana Tuesday and at times again later this week into next weekend in association with individual Pacific weather systems moving across the region. && .DISCUSSION... Today through Tuesday...Low amplitude upper level ridge across the western US remains in place with flow aloft gradually turning from NW to westerly today as heights continue to gradually rise. More significant warming is expected this afternoon in response to stronger warm advection in westerly flow in the lower to mid levels with additional warming occurring Monday and Tuesday. Little change in wind speeds aloft today, though the surface pressure gradient across the Rockies weakens slightly in response to weakening of the surface high west of the divide, resulting in continued breezy to windy conditions across much of north central MT, though wind speeds/gusts should be slightly lower than yesterday. Ridge begins to flatten slightly tonight with a wind max at 700MB around 50kts passing across the Rocky Mtn Front region tonight, providing a chance for a period of gusts of 50kts or more there tonight. Overall winds aloft gradually increase across much of the area Monday and Monday night as the upper ridge flattens further. Upper level trough moving into BC Tuesday will further increase winds aloft as the upper level jet sags SE along the US/Canadian border. This in combination with deepening surface low pressure across AB will bring favorable chances for more widespread strong winds across western/NW portions of the forecast area on Tuesday, initially for areas along and adjacent to the Rocky Mtn front, but likely to spread east as the day progresses. Hoenisch Tuesday night through Sunday...Overall pattern will continue to suggest well above-normal temperatures to persist through mid-week with a progressive zonal pattern set up aloft across the state. Expect a quick moving shortwave trough and surface cold front to swing through early Wednesday which will likely bump temperatures down a tad, but not by much with temperatures still generally remaining above normal during the day on Wednesday. Additionally, the big story will be continued widespread strong winds which will likely last even into the overnight hours on Wednesday and into Thursday. We begin to see a slight transition in the upper air pattern beginning on Thursday as a stronger longwave trough sets up across the west coast. With southwesterly unidirectional flow aloft downstream of the trough, expect downsloping to aid in much warmer temperatures, as hinted by the latest model trends the past few days. Otherwise, it will remain dry for most areas through late Thursday. By Friday, another quick moving, yet stronger cold front is forecast to push across the state followed by cooler temperatures. Latest model guidance still suggests showers increasing in coverage following the frontal passage across the area late Friday and into early Saturday. Timing on any cooler air and associated precipitation will need to be watched as we get into Saturday morning, with the potential for rain and/or snow, especially across higher elevations of southern Montana. By the weekend, expect any lingering precipitation to quickly exit leaving behind periods of sun and clouds with temperatures slowly moderating into Sunday. KLG && .AVIATION... Updated 0520Z. VFR conditions to persist across north-central and southwest Montana through Sunday evening under a dry/stable W/NW flow aloft. Gusty west winds will diminish some tonight with gusts 20-30kts continuing across western portions of n-central MT and gusts 35- 45kts along areas immediately adjacent to the Rocky Mtn Front. Winds increase again late Sunday into Sunday evening. Hoenisch && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... GTF 60 44 68 48 / 0 0 0 0 CTB 58 41 65 43 / 0 0 0 0 HLN 61 36 67 39 / 0 0 0 0 BZN 59 31 66 35 / 0 0 0 0 WEY 47 22 52 24 / 0 0 0 0 DLN 56 29 62 33 / 0 0 0 0 HVR 59 39 67 42 / 0 0 0 0 LWT 60 39 67 42 / 0 0 0 0 && .TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ weather.gov/greatfalls