821 FXUS66 KPQR 141640 AFDPQR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Portland OR 939 AM PDT Sat Oct 14 2017 .SYNOPSIS...Dry weather will continue through Monday as high pressure remains over the Pacific Northwest. The next chance for rain comes Tuesday as the tail end of a cold front moves across the Pacific Northwest. Stronger, wetter systems are expected for the second half of next week. && .SHORT TERM...Today through Monday...Clear skies under a cool, moist, and stable airmass overnight last night allowed thick radiational fog to develop this morning. Fog has become dense in areas Salem southward along the I-5 corridor and out near Hillsboro. This fog may hang on for another hour or two before it starts to break up. A broad ridge will keep us dry through the rest of this weekend into early next week. Only exception may be this afternoon a weak system hitting B.C. will brush western WA bringing some clouds to the south WA coast. Will see offshore winds increase a bit this evening as the thermal trough currently over the northern CA coast builds northward onto the south OR coast. This should mean less fog Sunday morning, however have left a chance for patchy fog Sunday for those areas that are more protected from easterly winds. The thermal trough moves off to the east Sunday afternoon, cutting back on winds Sunday night for a better chance of morning fog on Monday. Nighttime temperatures over the next few days will be flirting around or just below freezing in many locations, similar to this morning. Sunday and Monday should be the warmest days this week, due to an approaching system bringing rain back midweek. -McCoy .LONG TERM...Monday night through Friday...No changes. Previous discussion follows...A more active pattern takes hold across the region next week. Several embedded shortwave troughs pass across the Pacific Northwest as the general storm track shifts south from Canada. There continue to be timing differences among forecast models with respect to when these impulses track across the area, as would be expected in this pattern featuring a rather strong Pacific jet. At this point, sometime in the Wed-Thur time frame looks to be a fairly wet period as a slug of moistures slowly tracks across the area. Model precipitable water amounts forecast to be around 1.3" to 1.4" which is about 200 percent of seasonal averages. Of course models are likely to change between now and then but the the overall message is expect rainy period for the second half of next week with significant rises on rivers likely especially coastal ones. Rain total estimates for next week vary widely. 3 to 5 inches in the coastal mountains and north Cascades/foothills, with 2 to 3 inches in the valley locations and remaining Cascades/foothills is a reasonable estimate at this time. Snow levels would be above 6,000 ft for the first half of the week, then potentially drop to around Cascade pass level later next week. /mh && .AVIATION...High pres over the region through the weekend. Clear skies overnight allowed surface temps to cool considerably, resulting in areas of IFR fog and low stratus over the interior lowlands. There is enough offshore flow at the coast that conditions are generally VFR at this time. The remaining fog and low clouds will gradually dissipate over the next couple of hours, giving way VFR conditions and mostly sunny skies this afternoon and tonight. KPDX AND APPROACHES...IFR fog and stratus to clear by 18Z-19Z. Then expect VFR conditions with clear skies this afternoon and tonight. Pyle && .MARINE...There will be very little change to the overall weather pattern through Mon. Surface high pres will remain in place over the NE Pac, with a thermally induced surface trough over northern Calif. This will bring persistent northerly winds. The latest fcst models suggest gusts of 20 to 25 kt with develop over PZZ275 this afternoon and tonight, so have issued a small craft advisory for winds during this time. Winds will generally remain 20 kt or less on Sun and Mon. Seas will remain 5 to 7 ft through Mon. A significant pattern change will begin on Tue, bringing periodic strong fronts through the waters through the end of next week. Southerly winds will increase, especially Wed and Thu with strong southerly gales expected. Will also see building seas, possibly reaching near 20 ft later Wed and Thu. Pyle/Rockey && .PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OR...None. WA...None. PZ...Small Craft Advisory for winds from 3 PM this afternoon to 5 AM PDT Sunday for Waters from Cascade Head to Florence OR from 10 to 60 NM. && $$ Interact with us via social media: www.facebook.com/NWSPortland www.twitter.com/NWSPortland This discussion is for Northwest Oregon and Southwest Washington from the Cascade crest to 60 nautical miles offshore. This area is commonly referred to as the forecast area.