179 FXUS62 KMHX 090459 AFDMHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 1259 AM EDT Mon Oct 9 2017 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure offshore will remain in control through Monday, as the remnants of Nate are forecast lift well to the west. A cold front will slowly cross the area Wednesday and Thursday followed by high pressure from the north late in the week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 1255 AM Monday...Based on latest radar trends, will drop PoPs over the coastal sections overnight, while maintaining a low PoP over inland counties as a few showers continue to traverse areas around Fayetteville. Summer-like conditions expected otherwise overnight with lows low to mid 70s with high humidity. && .SHORT TERM / TUESDAY THROUGH 6 AM TUESDAY/... As of 240 PM Sunday...High pressure offshore will remain in control, as the remnant of Nate continues to quickly lift well north/northwest of the area. Summertime type pattern will continue with warm and humid conditions. Scattered tropical like showers/isolated storms continue, with best precip chances along and west of Hwy 17 in the afternoon. PWAT values continue to increase to around 2.4", with main threat brief locally heavy rain. Marginal instability, MU CAPES 1000-1500 J/kg, and shear could support some isolated storms. Low level thickness values and mostly cloudy skies support highs in the low to mid 80s. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 3 PM Sunday...Summer-like pattern with warm and humid conditions expected through early next week, then a cold front with better chances of precip arrive Tuesday through Thursday. Gradual drying late in the week into the weekend as high pres builds in. Monday Night...Moisture will begin to increase over the region as weak front approaches. Forcing is still limited with upr ridge near cst. Have chc pops inland to slight chc cst. Muggy lows in the lower 70s. Tuesday into Friday...Weak front will sag into the region mid week then slowly push to the S late in week. Anomalously high moisture will be over the region Tue into Thu with precip wtr values aoa 2 inches. Forcing is limited with upr rdg slowly sliding to the SW...however given such high moisture and convergence near bndry will cont high chc pops much of the period thru Thu. Looks like drier air will begin to work in from the N by Fri with precip chcs diminishing espcly inland and N. Highs will remain above normal Tue and Wed with low to mid 80s highs then cool slightly to upper 70s around 80 Thu and Fri. High moisture will lead to mild lows in the lower 70s Tue and Wed morn then cool slightly into the 60s inland to around 70 beaches later in week. Saturday and Sunday...The front will grad push S or dissipate with high pres building in from the N. This shld lead to mainly dry weather with highs upr 70s to lower 80s and lows 60s inland to around 70 beaches. && .AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Short Term /through 06Z Tuesday/... As of 1 AM Monday...Extensive high clouds should preclude much in the way of fog overnight, but a very moist boundary layer with southerly winds may lead to periods of stratus and will continue previous forecast of some MVFR ceilings for a few hours early this morning. Ceilings should lift to VFR later in the morning with scattered showers and perhaps a thunderstorm or two by afternoon. Long Term /Monday night through Friday/... As of 300 PM Sunday...Very high moisture over the area will lead to bouts of sub-VFR thru much of the period. Best precip chc look to be Tue into Wed with front slowly sagging into region. Any breaks in clouds at night will likely lead to fog and stratus developing as well. By Fri drier air will start to spread in from the N and may see more pred VFR. && .MARINE... Short Term /through Monday/... As of 1 AM Monday...Southerly winds should continue overnight and through Monday at 10-15 knots with seas generally 2-4 feet, but with a few 5-6 footers over the central and southern outer waters, as a SCA will remain in effect for those zones with the combinations of a few wind gusts to 20 knots and lingering swell energy will keep seas elevated. Long Term /Monday night through Friday/... As of 3 PM Sunday...High pressure will remain off the coast through Tue night with SSW winds 10 to 20 kts highest Mon night. As front sags in region Wed and Thu expect winds to become light and slowly shift to NNE. ENE winds aob 15 kts expected Fri with front to the S and high pres building in. Seas of 4 to 6 feet early Mon evening will subside to 3 to 5 feet overnight into Tue. Seas of 2 to 4 feet expected Tue night into Thu. Some swell energy may lead to seas building to 3 to 5 feet on Fri. && .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...Beach Hazards Statement from 8 AM EDT this morning through this evening for NCZ095-103-104. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM EDT Tuesday for AMZ152-154. Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EDT this evening for AMZ156- 158. && $$ SYNOPSIS...CQD NEAR TERM...CTC SHORT TERM...CQD LONG TERM...DAG/RF AVIATION...CTC/JBM/CQD MARINE...CTC/JBM/CQD