662 FXUS61 KRLX 061910 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 310 PM EDT Wed Sep 6 2017 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure with drier and cooler weather for the remainder of the week. Watching Irma for possible remnant impacts early next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 210 PM Wednesday... Models finally bring in surface high pressure with drier and cooler air for this period. However, with some cold advection going on, we will see varying amounts of clouds, most numerous in the north and during the afternoon hours. Winds may decouple enough later tonight for some river and valley fog in areas that have the least cloud cover; especially in the more protected areas of central and eastern WV. Temperatures will be below normal for this time of year. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... As of 310 PM Wednesday... There are a few minuscule complications in the short term forecast with the upper level trough axis taking its time traversing the northeastern CONUS, allowing sheared out vorticity maxima to track through the northern CWA boundary. Also adding to the lift is a weak reinforcing cold front. Friday NAM output gives some layer moisture from 850-700mb, suggesting a cu field trying to gain vertical extent, hampered by dry air. There could be sprinkles in the far northern CWA, not represented in the grids thus far, and may need to bump up sky cover in coming runs. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 310 PM Wednesday... Still going to be watching the track of Irma, which continues to hedge a bit from run to run, but many still seem to have some long range consistency with a central Appalachian/middle Ohio Valley effects. Too early to get into too much detail here, but expect increasing cloud cover and POPs from early Tuesday onward. Will continue to monitor. && .AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... 18Z Wednesday thru 18Z Thursday... As of 145 PM Wednesday... High pressure will build in tonight and Thursday. Outside of some IFR river and valley fog tonight between 07Z and 12Z affecting mainly CRW and EKN TAF sites, look for VFR SCT-BKN 3500-6000 feet AGL clouds this period. Clouds will be most numerous in the north and during the afternoon hours. Westerly winds 4 to 8 KTS during the daylight hours, will diminish to near calm in river and valley areas during the night. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium to high. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: River and valley fog later tonight may be more dense and widespread than currently forecast if winds diminish quicker. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 EDT 1HRLY 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H L HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H L PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M AFTER 18Z THURSDAY... IFR possible in river and valley fog early Friday morning. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JMV/26 NEAR TERM...JMV/MPK SHORT TERM...26 LONG TERM...26 AVIATION...JMV