898 
FXUS63 KMPX 061122
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
622 AM CDT Wed Sep 6 2017

.UPDATE...For 12z Aviation discussion below

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 340 AM CDT Wed Sep 6 2017

The amplified trough over the Great Lakes will continue to swing 
toward the Eastern seaboard today, with the shower threat following 
suit with an eastward shift. Expect widely scattered showers to be 
restricted to areas generally along and east of a Ladysmith to Eau 
Claire line. The surface pressure gradient has also slackened, which 
will mean much lighter northwest winds today (under 10 knots). 
Continued weak cold air advection will contribute to temperatures 
around 10 degrees below climatological normals. Expect highs in the 
60s and lows in the 40s.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 340 AM CDT Wed Sep 6 2017

The large scale flow looks to become much less amplified as we
head through the longer term, with the eastern trough lifting out
and modest ridging working into the central CONUS. This will allow
for a warmup, with temperatures climbing back above normal by the
end of the weekend into next week. With the exception of the
possibility of some lingering showers over the eastern portion of 
the area tomorrow, the forecast looks to be dry through the seven 
day period. Cool Canadian high pressure will drop south into the 
area tomorrow night and Friday, and looks to keep subsidence over 
the area through the weekend as heights steadily rise. A cold front 
may try to push through Monday into early Tuesday, but at this point 
there looks to be minimal moisture return ahead of it, so left PoPs 
out of the forecast for now. By the Tuesday/Wednesday time frame, 
there is a fair amount of disagreement in the deterministic 
solutions from the GFS and ECMWF, with the GFS maintaining more in 
the way of ridging over the region, while the ECMWF looks to try and 
re-establish and eastern trough with northwest flow over us. 
However, neither solution would point to much if any precipitation.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Thursday morning)
Issued at 623 AM CDT Wed Sep 6 2017

Broken cu/stratocu clouds will occur across the central/eastern 
TAF sites today. Scattered shower activity could come close to
clipping KEAU, but at this time think it will be east so have not
included a mention in the TAF. Winds will be from the northwest 
again today buy notably weaker (5-9 knots).

KMSP...
No additional concerns. 

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
Thu...VFR. Wind WSW 5 kts. 
Fri...VFR. Wind ESE 5 kts. 
Sat...VFR. Wind SE 5-10 kts. 

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LS
LONG TERM...   
AVIATION...LS