918 
FXUS63 KICT 151716
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
1216 PM CDT Sat Jul 15 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 717 AM CDT Sat Jul 15 2017

This Morning:
The small isolated showers that were occurring in Elk & Chautauqua
counties drifted south across the OK border & dissipated. Areas of
light fog occurring in Central & Southeast KS should not restrict
visibilities to less than 3 miles. All products have been updated
to reflect these minor changes.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Monday night)
Issued at 246 AM CDT Sat Jul 15 2017

Upper ridge is currently centered over the central Rockies with a
shortwave tracking across the eastern Great Lakes. There remains a
plume of mid level moisture and convectively induced circulation
over eastern CO which is evident via water vapor imagery and 
regional 88d mosaic.

Still feel the better shower/storm chances will be tied to the
mid/upper circulation over eastern CO with this feature expected
to drift slowly east and northeast tonight into Sun. Even though
models have a similar track to the upper impulse, lifting it over
nw KS and into western Nebraska, there are some discrepancies
with regards to timing. The GFS and NAM are slightly faster
compared to the ECMWF. Given the decent model agreement on track,
feel confident that the better precip chances will remain west and
northwest of the forecast area through Monday. 

Slow warming trend will commence today and continue into the start
of the work week, with mid 90s expected area wide by Mon. 

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Friday)
Issued at 246 AM CDT Sat Jul 15 2017

Medium range models remain consistent in tracking shortwave energy
across southern Canada Sun night into Mon which will push a cold
front across the northern Plains Mon into Tue. Both ECMWF and GFS
hang this front up well north of the forecast area. At the same
time, upper ridging will expand across the central/southern Plains
into the Mississippi Valley. This will allow the warming trend to
continue with upper 90s to around 100 by Wed with 100s looking
common area wide by Thu. 

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
Issued at 1214 PM CDT Sat Jul 15 2017

VFR conditions thorugh the forecast period. A few isolated trw are
possible in the SE scetions and could affect KCNU but chances are
pretty slim. Also in SE KS, visibilities may dip to MVFR levels
during the very early morning but shoudl burn off quickly.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    91  71  93  71 /  10  10  10   0 
Hutchinson      91  70  93  70 /  10  10  10   0 
Newton          90  70  92  69 /  10  10  10   0 
ElDorado        90  70  91  69 /  10  10   0   0 
Winfield-KWLD   92  70  92  70 /  10  10  10   0 
Russell         92  68  93  70 /  10  10  10  20 
Great Bend      92  68  92  70 /  20  20  10  20 
Salina          94  71  95  71 /   0  10   0   0 
McPherson       92  68  93  69 /  10  10  10   0 
Coffeyville     91  69  92  69 /  10   0   0   0 
Chanute         90  68  91  68 /  10   0   0   0 
Iola            90  67  91  68 /  10   0   0   0 
Parsons-KPPF    90  69  92  69 /  10   0   0   0 

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...EPS
SHORT TERM...RBL
LONG TERM...RBL
AVIATION...CWH