601 FXUS65 KABQ 271759 AAB AFDABQ Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Albuquerque NM 1159 AM MDT Tue Jun 27 2017 .AVIATION... 18Z TAF CYCLE Winds will shift out of the west and southwest today and become breezy in response to strengthening flow aloft and a lee-side surface trough. Humidities will trend downward with mainly isolated showers and thunderstorms expected. Most of these should form over the central mountain chain and southwest mountains, then move to the east southeast over adjacent lowlands at speeds around 15 to 30 kt. A few cells could form over the Jemez and southern San Juan Mountains, too. Most of the activity should dissipate with sunset, except for a few lingering cells over the northeast and east central plains. 44 && .PREV DISCUSSION...301 AM MDT Tue Jun 27 2017... .SYNOPSIS... Thunderstorm coverage will trend down today as dry air works in from the west. Best chances for isolated storms will be across the eastern plains where low level moisture hangs on the longest. Dry and very warm to hot conditions are forecast for Wednesday and Thursday. A backdoor front will bring slight cooling and chances for thunderstorms to the northeast quarter Friday. Late-day storm chances will continue across eastern New Mexico through the weekend while western and central areas remain hot and dry. && .DISCUSSION... Remarkably dry airmass over southern CA and far western AZ very evident on GOES-16 low level water vapor imagery early this morning. In fact, 500mb RH progs from the 00Z NAM12 at 18Z Thursday showing values below one quarter of one percent. It physically cannot get much drier, even at 18k feet above MSL. At any rate, the leading edge of this bone dry airmass will win out across western and central areas with isolated thunderstorms possible from the central mountain chain ewd this afternoon and early evening. Temperatures will inch up each day through Thursday but remain below last week's heat wave. Dry conditions prevail all areas Wednesday and Thursday with breezy to locally windy west winds developing each afternoon. Models continue to bring a backdoor front into ern NM Thursday night and west into the RGV Friday morning. Gulf moisture increases behind this feature for at least isolated storms east. GFS back to being totally dry while the ECMWF continues with isolated to perhaps scattered storms across the plains each afternoon and early evening Friday through the weekend. Trended the forecast toward the more consistent ECMWF given the fact that both models are picking up on weak upper troughs sliding east-southeast through northeast NM each afternoon and the general rule of thumb to not "go below (guidance) in northwest flow". GFS and ECWMF have essentially flip-flopped for next week with the GFS looking more "monsoonish" than the ECMWF as the Four Corners high center gets forced east over the Central Plains and a relatively deep moisture plume extending northward across the state. ECMWF on the other hand keeps the high center over NM with a piddly plume at most. 33 && .FIRE WEATHER... Good to excellent RH recovery is underway for central to eastern New Mexico while the far western border of the state remains drier with humidity struggling to rebound early this morning. High pressure will finally retrieve the proverbial anchor today, allowing this upper level feature to settle farther south while stiffening westerly flow aloft works into NM. Drier air will accompany the westerly breezes as they mix down to the surface over much of the western zones of NM, and warmer temperatures will also be observed. Conditions will also turn more unstable over much of the western half of NM with Haines indices escalating to 6. Southwesterly breezes will be gusty this afternoon over the western zones, particularly over the higher terrain of west central NM. In the plains the winds will retain more of a south southwesterly direction with speeds also increasing and turning a bit gusty into the late afternoon. Moisture will struggle to hang on over the southwestern mountains, perhaps enough for a stray storm or two, but the best prospects for isolated to scattered storms will reside along and just east of the central mountain chain this afternoon and evening where the moisture will be better rooted. The forecast for a drier, warm to hot, and unstable scenario is still on target for Wednesday and Thursday as high pressure stays to the southwest of NM and dry westerly flow prevails into the forecast area. Breezy to windy conditions will develop each day with seasonal, but warm to hot, temperatures taking shape in western to central zones while eastern zones creep above normal by 5 to 10 degrees. Amidst the westerly flow that will overtake NM, dewpoints will drop substantially with RH trending below 10 percent in most of the forecast area each afternoon. This low humidity will be juxtaposed over some spotty areas that exceed critical wind thresholds, generally along and just east (downwind) of higher terrain areas. While this only spells spotty critical fire weather by established criteria/definitions, the pattern for Wednesday and Thursday could still be a potentially dire one as widespread high Haines values of 6 plague essentially the entire forecast area. Humidity recoveries will also be very poor over most zones Wednesday night into Thursday morning with little reprieve for western to central zones Thursday night. After nudging toward the northeast corner of NM late Thursday afternoon, a back door cold front is still slated to fully enter the eastern plains Thursday night and Friday morning. This will briefly recharge moisture in the eastern plains while ushering in gusty winds and knocking temperatures down a few degrees. A few storms could also exploit this added moisture, most likely along and east of the Sangre de Cristos Friday afternoon/evening. The front will then wash out with winds quickly veering more southerly over the plains of NM by Saturday. As moisture waffles over the eastern plains, a few storms would still be possible Saturday. Through this time high pressure aloft will be attempting to re-establish itself over NM, but in a weaker and rather disorganized state. Depending exactly where it sets up and consequently how it orients the flow, some modest and modified subtropical moisture could sneak into NM from the south. For now some isolated storms have been forecast in the southwest mountains for Sunday and Monday with the central mountain chain also retaining these low chances with the potential remnant low moisture. && .ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$