591 FXUS64 KJAN 202147 AFDJAN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jackson MS 447 PM CDT Tue Jun 20 2017 ...TROPICAL STORM CINDY BRINGS THREAT FOR HEAVY RAIN AND FLOODING... .DISCUSSION... Tonight and Wednesday... Tropical Storm Cindy will be our weathermaker of the next couple of days. Currently the outer bands of Cindy are bringing showers to the southeastern portions of the area. A few showers are occuring further north over the area, along and out ahead of a weak stationary boundary that extends generally along the Natchez trace corridor. These conditions will continue into tonight as Cindy slowly moves northwest. Expect the rainfall to continue to increase in coverage late overnight into Wednesday, with heavy rainfall possible over the southern counties by early Wednesday morning. The rainfall will continue to spread northward across the area on Wednesday with the heaviest accumulations over the southern portions of the area. Through Wednesday night, areas near the Highway 84 corridor may receive 2 to 4 inches with localized higher amounts. Areas along the Highway 98 corridor may receive as much as 4 to 6 inches, with the highest amounts of Marion and Forest Counties. Will upgrade this area to significant flooding possible. A flash flood watch has already been issued for counties along and south of the Highway 84 corridor. Wednesday night through the weekend... The main focus continues to the impacts from now Tropical Storm Cindy. Cindy was upgraded earlier this afternoon and the latest advisories from NHC take it still into the TX/LA border. However, the system still remains lopsided with the rain and clouds present on the north and eastern side and the western side remains sheared. The primary impacts from Cindy will continue to be heavy rain and flooding potential. Given PW values of 2-2.6 inches forecast across the area, heavy rainfall in any rainband will be a concern. Instability will be on the lower side, and while a rumble of thunder may be possible, left weather in the forecast as showers/heavy rain rather than much thunderstorms. Latest QPF guidance indicates the southeast part of our CWA continues to have the best potential to see highest rain totals and flooding concerns. Some areas in the southeast could see some significant flooding, or it may be just outside of our area. Latest QPF amounts indicate 2 to 4 inches across some of the Highway 84 corridor with 4 to 6 inches in the Pine Belt(Marion to Forrest counties) with locally higher amounts. Just outside of my forecast area, amounts will be higher with some areas seeing closer to 10 inches. Thus, to account for this, we have increased portions of the Pine Belt to significant flooding potential given antecedent conditions and potential for higher rainfall totals. I don't think it would be out of the question for locations south of I-20 in the eastern part of the forecast area to be upgraded to an elevated risk for flooding given how moist we are and this may be revisited in later forecasts. Rain bands are slowly moving ashore across southern Mississippi today and will continue through Thursday across the area. The heaviest rainfall will occur Wednesday afternoon and night and may continue into some of Thursday. A Flash Flood Watch remains in effect and was expanded to include the rest of the HIghway 84 corridor after midnight tonight. Another, much smaller, threat will be from gusty winds and perhaps a tornado on Thursday as rainbands move across the region. As is always a potential with a landfalling system, this cannot be ruled out as there is some wind shear that could support a few rotating showers moving across the area. However, flooding is a much bigger concern with Cindy. Will keep the already advertised marginal risk in place. By Thursday night into Friday, the remnants of Tropical Storm Cindy will be across western Louisiana or eastern Texas. It will then interact with an approaching upper trough, swinging across the region. This will help lift the remnant tropical system more into the mid-latitude flow and up into the Mid-South region Friday. It will then interact with an approaching front. This, along with ample moisture, could again bring potential for heavy rain and flash flooding to portions of our region, especially northern areas. The aforementioned front will stall across the northern parts of the region and slowly sink south through the weekend, bringing a continued chance for rain. /28/ && .AVIATION... 18Z TAF discussion: A mix of VFR/MVFR conditions prevail across most of the ArkLaMiss this afternoon. The outer rainbands are effecting HBG with occasional IFR visibilities in heavy rain. Expect these conditions to continue through much of the day. A few showers may bring brief MVFR visibilities to JAN/HKS/MET this afternoon and evening. Expect MVFR/IFR conditions at most sites by early wednesday as the outer rainbands for TS Cindy move further north across the area. The winds will generally be out of the east at 7-10kts with a few higher gusts possible through the period./15/ && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Jackson 70 80 73 85 / 44 81 85 69 Meridian 70 78 73 83 / 72 84 84 79 Vicksburg 72 83 73 86 / 27 69 84 66 Hattiesburg 70 78 73 84 / 89 95 99 79 Natchez 71 81 73 85 / 59 85 93 66 Greenville 71 86 73 85 / 10 34 43 70 Greenwood 70 85 72 84 / 15 37 48 66 && .JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MS...Flash Flood Watch through Thursday evening for MSZ061>066- 072>074. Flash Flood Watch from 1 AM CDT Wednesday through Thursday evening for MSZ060. LA...Flash Flood Watch from 1 AM CDT Wednesday through Thursday evening for LAZ024-026. AR...None. && $$ 15/28