552 FXUS62 KMHX 181944 AFDMHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 344 PM EDT Sun Jun 18 2017 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will remain anchored in the central Atlantic. A cold front will approach from the west Tuesday. It will become stationary over the middle of the state Wednesday, then slowly dissipate Friday through Sunday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/... As of 345 pm Sun...Scattered convection will linger for a short time into this evening, then dissipate with the loss of daytime heating. Models show inland theta-e ridge from this afternoon dissipating and reforming over the coastal waters late tonight with widely scattered activity over the central and southern waters. Some of this may brush the south coast and central/southern Outer Banks after midnight so included a slight chance PoP there. Warm and muggy overnight with lows in the mid to upper 70s throughout. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/... As of 345 pm Sun...Offshore theta-e ridge will transition to the inland areas once again during the day Monday. Looking for a similar day to today with chance PoPs inland from the coast, with dry conditions south coast and adjacent Outer Banks. Highs will be in the upper 80s inland, with mid 80s south coast and Outer Banks. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 4 AM Sunday...Another week of unsettled weather across Eastern NC with rounds of daily showers and thunderstorms. A weakening cold front will provide more widespread showers and thunderstorms Monday through Wednesday. Then an offshore high/inland trough pattern returns Thursday through next weekend. Tuesday through Wednesday...A broad upper trough digs into the eastern CONUS this period with the attendant, slowly dissipating, cold front advances toward the region Tuesday and Wednesday. Increasing S/SW flow will continue to bring abundant moisture across region with PWATs around 2 inches while the region will be under favorable upper level dynamics as the right entrance region of the upper jet approaches. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are expected through the period with best coverage likely Tuesday through early Wednesday. Could see strong to marginally severe storms Monday and Tuesday with plenty of instability with MUCAPE around 2000-3000 J/Kg and somewhat better shear around 20-25 kt while Wednesday doesn't look to be as unstable. Storms could also produce heavy rainfall with localized flooding especially if training storms develop. Highs Monday expected in the mid to upper 80s with clouds and precip keeping highs in the low to mid 80s Tuesday and Wednesday. Lows will be in the 70s. Thursday through Saturday...The upper trough lifts out late in the week but models differ on how strong the upper ridge builds aloft as well as where a Gulf of Mexico tropical system will track as we move into the second half of the week. The 00z GFS tracks the tropical system farther east toward the Florida panhandle with mainly zonal flow across the region and maintains a wetter pattern across the region. The 00z ECMWF tracks the tropical system into Texas with weak ridging across the region with not as wet of a pattern, however still sufficient moisture and instability to produce a few afternoon showers/thunderstorms across the region. Preference currently is for a solution closer to the ECMWF and have slight chance to chance PoPs through the period. Seasonably warm temps continue this period with highs around 90 inland to mid 80s coast and lows in the 70s. && .AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Short Term /through Mon/ As of 345 pm Sun...Widely scattered afternoon convection will dissipate quickly with sunset. Mostly clear overnight, with some scattered CU closer to the coast possible at EWN and OAJ in the predawn hours. Sub-VFR in scattered afternoon convection forecast for all 4 terminals. Ceilings mainly around 4 kft. Surface winds will be SSW 5-10 knots through the period. Long Term /Monday night through Thursday/... As of 4 AM Sunday...Sub-VFR conditions are possible Monday night through Wednesday with scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms expected as a cold front approaches and favorable upper level dynamics moves into the region. Patchy late night/early morning fog will be possible, especially in areas that received rainfall. VFR conditions will return Thursday though could still see isolated to scattered afternoon showers/storms. && .MARINE... Short Term /through Mon/ As of 345 pm Sun...Breezy south to southwest winds will continue in the short term in between the Bermuda High and a slowly approaching front from the west. Speeds generally 15-20 knots on the coastal waters and both sounds, with 10-15 knots on the rivers. Models builds seas to 4-6 feet Monday in the waters north of Cape Lookout, so will post Small Craft advisories for those waters with the upcoming zones. The waters south of Cape Lookout could see some 6-footers in the far eastern portion of the zone for about a 6-8 hour period Monday night, but will not issue a SCA at this point since it is the 3rd period and very brief. Mid shift can evaluate tonight. Long Term /Tuesday through Thursday/... As of 4 AM Sunday...High pressure will persist offshore while a slowly dissipating cold front approaches from the west, although it is expected to stall before reaching the coastal waters. Southwest winds expected to prevail through the period, generally around 10-20 kt, except late Monday afternoon and Monday night as winds increase to 15-25 kt ahead of the front. && .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...Beach Hazards Statement until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ095- 098-103-104. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 2 PM Monday to 4 PM EDT Tuesday for AMZ152-154. Small Craft Advisory from 5 PM Monday to 10 AM EDT Tuesday for AMZ156. Small Craft Advisory from 5 PM Monday to 6 AM EDT Tuesday for AMZ150. && $$ SYNOPSIS...HSA NEAR TERM...HSA SHORT TERM...HSA LONG TERM...JBM AVIATION...HSA/JBM MARINE...HSA/JBM