996 FXUS63 KFGF 180013 AFDFGF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Forks ND 713 PM CDT Sat Jun 17 2017 .UPDATE... Issued at 711 PM CDT Sat Jun 17 2017 500 mb short wave in far SE ND at 00z and moving ESE. Convection assoc with short wave and upstream in shear axis into central Saskatchewan is gradually weakening. Overall only minor tweeks needed. Nrn RRV and far NW MN appear dry tonight. && .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday) Issued at 314 PM CDT Sat Jun 17 2017 Timing and placement of convection this afternoon and its evolution into the evening will be the main challenge tonight. Tomorrows challenge will be max temps under low stratus, thick clouds and in the cold air advecting south tonight. This afternoon convection has developed primarily along and south of a Devils Lake to Fargo to Detroit Lakes line. Mesoanalysis shows effective bulk shear values generally between 20 and 30kts with MLCAPE between 500 and 1000 J/kg. Primarily pulse types cells with an occasional stronger storm producing hail half up to an inch in size and gusty downbursts generally 40 to 50mph. SPC has maintained the marginal risk for severe across the southern two thirds of the area for the low probability of a stronger storm becoming severe with 1 inch hail and or a gust to 60mph. Activity is expected to increase in coverage through the early evening with a tenth to a quarter inch of rain expected in the southern valley into west central MN. Cold advection overnight with stratus deck sliding south out of Manitoba and 925mb temps nearly 5C cooler than today. Clouds and cooler thermal profile will help keep temps on the low side with highs Sunday in the 60s to upper 50s in some locales of NW MN. A few showers with embedded thunder will be possible in the west along a weak baroclinic zone tomorrow afternoon. .LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Saturday) Issued at 314 PM CDT Sat Jun 17 2017 The long term period begins with a continuation of a NW flow pattern aloft with a series of short waves creating periods of isold to sct SHRA and TS. A minor short wave ridge will keep Sun night and Mon morning dry before the first wave crops into srn MB and brings a chance for SHRA and TS Mon aftn through Mon night. A more amplified ridge then sets up from cntrl MT across Alberta which will bring dry conds Tue through late Tue evening. The next shortwave then moves into srn MB late Tue and Wed to bring showers/storms to mainly the northern and eastern zones overnight Tue night as a clipper like sfc low tracks across ern MT and into s cntrl SD. The remainder of the week transitions to more zonal flow aloft with a closed low dropping into srn MB by 12Z Fri. This brings more low POPs to the region Thu and Fri. Confidence is low by this point in the fcst pd as the ECMWF depicts this low well to the east of the GFS solution, over cntrl Ontario. Upper pattern shifts back to NW flow by Sat with another SWT bringing chances for activity across the north. Daytime highs will continue to be cool...generally in the 60s and 70s throughout the long term period except Wed, as the upper ridge allows a bit more solar and temps should rise into the 70s and 80s. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening) Issued at 711 PM CDT Sat Jun 17 2017 Lower level cloud cover is still anticipated to drop south tonight. How far south and to how low the ceilings will be is questionable. But most very short term guidance indicates cigs lowering into the MVFR range all areas in the 06-12z period and staying in that range thru 18z sunday. North winds 5 to 15 kts. && .FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ND...None. MN...None. && $$ UPDATE...Riddle SHORT TERM...JK LONG TERM...Speicher AVIATION...Riddle