113 FXUS63 KPAH 080336 AFDPAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Paducah KY 1036 PM CDT Wed Jun 7 2017 .UPDATE... Issued at 556 PM CDT Wed Jun 7 2017 Update for 06z aviation only. && .SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Friday night) Issued at 257 PM CDT Wed Jun 7 2017 A vorticity lobe in the mid levels just to the east of the PAH forecast area will continue to provide just enough lift for a broken deck of clouds to thrive mainly east of the MS River this afternoon. These clouds will dissipate with the loss of diurnal solar heating. Some resurgence of the clouds may occur Thu as the parent mid level low retrogrades a bit in the model data. Meanwhile, through early Fri, the center of surface high pressure will continue to move into our region. As a result, dry conditions with dewpoints in the upper 40s to lower 50s can be expected through Thu night. Fri will mark the beginning of a transition to more summer-like conditions as a ridge aloft over the Plains expands eastward. Low level winds are progged to turn to the southwest as mid level heights start rising. As a result, dewpoints and high/low temps should begin to creep up Fri/Fri night. .LONG TERM...(Saturday through Wednesday) Issued at 257 PM CDT Wed Jun 7 2017 Forecast confidence is high through the period. Summer will return. A ridge of high pressure will build over the region over the weekend and then shift east, as a storm system lifts from the west into the northern Plains the first half of the next week. The overall trend in guidance with this system is for it to be slower lifting out, so the associated cold front will not reach our area until well beyond this forecast period. At the surface, south winds will be the rule through the period, and eventually that will result in a marked increase in low-level moisture/humidity. Temperatures will start out just a few degrees above normal for highs and near normal for lows Saturday. Both will be on the increase, with highs in the lower 90s and lows in the upper 60s to lower 70s common next week. Heat indices Tuesday and Wednesday may reach the middle 90s in some locations. The medium range models continue to spread isolated to scattered convection northward into/through our region mainly Tuesday into Wednesday. With the warm air aloft, capping will be hard to overcome by thermodynamics alone, and there will be no boundaries or organized lift to help. Isolated showers and thunderstorms cannot be ruled out, so would prefer to keep PoPs at slight chance levels Tuesday and Wednesday. The 12Z GEM is on its own in bringing more organized convection into at least the northern half of the region Wednesday, so we will have to keep better chance PoPs in the north on Wednesday. I would expect those to trend downward with time. Wind fields will be very weak through the column, so any storms that do develop will go straight up and right back down. Locally heavy downpours and lightning will be the only concerns. && .AVIATION... Issued at 1034 PM CDT Wed Jun 7 2017 VFR all locations for the valid time of the taf sites. Did make the wind a little more northeast than north. May have to introduce a few or sct deck after 18z Thursday at KEVV and KOWB. Will wait and see if their is enough moisture in the next runs. && .PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IL...None. MO...None. IN...None. KY...None. && $$ UPDATE...KH SHORT TERM...DB LONG TERM...DRS AVIATION...KH