746 FXUS61 KCAR 032213 AFDCAR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Caribou ME 613 PM EDT Sat Jun 3 2017 .SYNOPSIS... A trough of low pressure will move east of the region tonight. Weak high pressure will briefly build across the region on Sunday. Low pressure will track south of the area Sunday night through early next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/... Showers are beginning to dissipate. Kept scattered showers for a couple hours early this evening before tapering the showers off. Also, lowered temps a couple degrees across parts of the north. An upper level low will continue to move east through the Canadian maritime provinces through Sunday. Latest radar reflectivity continues to show scattered shower activity, mainly across eastern Maine. Have only seen a few lightning strikes in the CWA, mainly across Washington county in down east Maine, where we even received a report of pea sized hail in Lubec. Expect this activity to wane quickly by early evening as we lose the diurnal heating. Otherwise expect partly to mainly cloudy skies overnight with diminishing winds. Couldn't rule out some patchy fog where showers occurred. Will not include in forecast however, since it should be patchy in nature and rather localized. Lows tonight should generally be in the low to mid 40s. The upper low will continue to move east the through the Canadian maritimes Sunday. The GFS still hints that there could be enough instability down east for an isolated shower in association with the departing Maritimes low. Otherwise any shower activity associated with the next upstream shortwave approaching from the west should hold off until evening with mainly dry weather expected across most of the region. Highs on Sunday should be a few degrees milder than today with highs generally in the low to mid 60s, but a bit cooler along the coast. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... A trough of low pressure over eastern Canada will drop south Sunday night developing surface low pressure over New York state. The low may bring some light rain into southwestern parts of our area Sunday night into Monday. High pressure will remain anchored to our northeast. The main forecast challenge will be in determining how far north this rain progresses as the low tracks to our south Monday into Tuesday and the high holds on to our northeast. Forecast guidance is coming into better agreement that any rain Monday into Monday night will be mainly confined to southern and western areas with the north mostly cloudy but remaining dry. One area of surface low pressure will slide east on Tuesday while the upper trough hangs back over the Great Lakes. Precipitation will likely thin out or dissipate Downeast. The north will have clouds and some breaks of sunshine Tuesday as high pressure to our north sinks a bit south into our region. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... The long term remains a complicated and messy forecast, with models differing greatly from each other, and also with significant run-to-run inconsistency. However, we can say with reasonable certainty that the period will start with a cut-off low over the eastern Great Lakes Tue night, sagging southeast across the Mid-Atlantic through Thurs. As this feature sags south, a weak sfc high will scoot by to the north of it and pass over Maine, giving us some nicer weather later Wed into Thurs. All models then show the cut-off finally getting picked up by the westerlies and pushing across or just south of New England Thurs night through Fri night, and the northern trough kicking it out may spur some showers or perhaps a few storms Fri eve and night. The 12z Euro came into more agreement with the GFS on an upper trough and surface cold front impacting the state later Saturday, with some showers and storms possible again Sat eve and night. However, given the significant disagreements and inconsistencies in model data over the past 24 hours or so, have kept all POPs to 50 percent of less for now. The latter half of the week looks to be near to a bit above normal on temps, with the best chance for temps getting into the mid-70s expected for Thurs and Fri, when partly to mostly sunny skies and S-SW'ly winds should help warm things up. && .AVIATION /22Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... NEAR TERM: Any scattered showers in the vicinity of the terminals late this afternoon should diminish quickly through 00z. Otherwise mainly VFR tonight through Sunday. Outside chance patchy fog could result in brief MVFR or even lower conditions late tonight, but confidence and coverage too low to include in latest taf forecast. SHORT TERM: VFR conditions are likely Sunday night, possible lowering to MVFR across the north late. MVFR conditions are likely Monday into Monday night Downeast with VFR conditions across the north. Conditions may improve to VFR Downeast on Tuesday and remain VFR across the north. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: Winds/Seas remain below advisory criteria through Sunday. SHORT TERM: A SCA may be needed late Monday night into early Tuesday for northeast winds as low pressure tracks south of the waters. Otherwise, winds and seas should remain below SCA. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...None. MARINE...None. && $$ Near Term...Duda/MCB Short Term...Bloomer Long Term...Kredensor Aviation...Duda/Bloomer Marine...Duda/Bloomer