130 FXUS63 KIND 030823 AFDIND Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Indianapolis IN 422 AM EDT Sat Jun 3 2017 .UPDATE... The AVIATION Section has been updated below. && .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 215 AM EDT Sat Jun 3 2017 Large High pressure across the region today will lead to another sunny day with summer-like temperatures. The high will drift east of Indiana tonight...but still keep dry weather across the state through Sunday. A weak cold front is then expected to pass across the area on late Sunday night. This may lead to a shower or storm late Sunday night. Dry weather is expected to return to Monday as another High pressure system drops across the Ohio Valley from Canada. This will bring dry weather back to Indiana for much of the next work week. && .NEAR TERM /Today/... Issued at 215 AM EDT Sat Jun 3 2017 Surface analysis early this morning shows a large and broad high pressure centered over West Virgina...providing dry weather through the region. GOESR shows clear skies across Central Indiana. Dew point temps were in the lower 50s. GFS depicts ridging in place aloft over the upper midwest with lee side subsidence in place across Illinois and Indiana. Forecast soundings and time height show a dry column through the day with limited instability but reachable convective temperatures. Thus only a few afternoon CU and/or passing high clouds will be expected. Given the full sunshine and slightly warmer 850mb temps...will trend highs warmer the yesterday...which the blend appear to have caught on to. && .SHORT TERM /Tonight through Monday Night/... Issued at 215 AM EDT Sat Jun 3 2017 Models keep NW flow in place aloft Tonight through Sunday. GFS hints at a weak short wave pushing through the Great lakes Late tonight...but this feature now appears even farther away from Central Indiana than previous runs. Meanwhile...time heights remain dry as do the forecast soundings...with mainly subsidence ongoing in the mid levels. THus will again trend toward mostly clear forecast tonight and mostly sunny day on Sunday with again a blend on Temps. GFS and NAM suggest a more organized short wave dropping out of the upper midwest in to the region on Sunday Night. Best forcing looks to remain northeast of Central Indiana...but still decent convergence and and thin band of moisture is depicted. Forecast soundings remain dry. Thus confidence is low for precip but some low chc pops will still be required given the dynamics passing aloft. Best pops will be placed NE...tapering toward dry across the SW if the blends allow. With expected clouds and possible rain...will trend lows at or above the blend. Monday and Monday night look dry. In the Wake of the cold front the GFS and NAM suggest strong subsidence as a very large area of high pressure over the upper midwest begins to settle southeast across Indiana. Forecast soundings and Time heights respond with a a dry column. Thus will trend toward partly cloudy conditions and continue to use a blend on Temps. && .LONG TERM /Tuesday through Friday/... Issued at 219 AM EDT Sat Jun 3 2017 The ensembles suggest a rather stable long wave pattern during this period, with deep troughing over the East Coast, and ridging over the Rockies and high Plains. Could be a few instability showers around Tuesday and Wednesday afternoon due to the proximity of the upper trough, but the ensembles are not very bullish on this idea. Appears next significant chance for precipitation will arrive around next Friday with a frontal zone. Will put some chance PoPs for next Friday, otherwise will keep the rest of the extended dry. && .AVIATION /Discussion for the 030900Z KIND TAF Update/... Issued at 422 AM EDT Sat Jun 3 2017 No changes made to the forecast at this time. Previous discussion follows. VFR conditions will continue through the forecast period. High pressure centered across the upper Ohio Valley will continue to provide dry weather and few clouds through Saturday evening. Model soundings do suggest potential for a few diurnal cu is a bit better Saturday afternoon than it was on Friday with moisture advection courtesy of light S/SW flow and lower convective temps. Likely to see more extensive higher clouds expand into the forecast area from the north after dark Saturday night with CAMs indicating a convective complex ongoing over the western Great Lakes ahead of a cold front. && .IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Puma NEAR TERM...Puma SHORT TERM...Puma LONG TERM....JAS AVIATION...Ryan/JAS