084 FXUS64 KTSA 292341 AFDTSA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tulsa OK 641 PM CDT Mon May 29 2017 .DISCUSSION... Low PoPs were extended slightly downstream of the current activity across portions of northeast Oklahoma thru 02Z, but thunder probs will not be extended beyond 00Z. The afternoon showers and isolated storms that formed along a weak front are weakening and this trend should continue as we go farther past peak heating. The remainder of the forecast was left intact. Lacy && .PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 624 PM CDT Mon May 29 2017/ AVIATION... CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG. Enhanced convergence along weak cold front across northeast OK has allowed for a few showers and thunderstorms to develop late this afternoon. Latest radar data show any lightning should stay away from the terminals at KTUL/KRVS. Weakening trend and loss of diurnal instability would suggest no mention of thunder is needed at any of the NW AR terminals. Winds will be light with a minor wind shift to northwest before gradient relaxes and light southerly flow resumes. PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 326 PM CDT Mon May 29 2017/ DISCUSSION... Weak cold front has pushed into NE OK with an axis of agitated CU marking the the boundary. Conditions are weakly unstable with no inhibition suggesting an isolated thunderstorm is possible through early evening but coverage is likely to be very low. Further west storms will develop along the Front Range and spread eastward overnight north of the aforementioned boundary. Expectation is that this convection will be weakening and lessening in coverage this far eastward. The decaying frontal zone will remain a potential focus for low thunderstorm chances both Tuesday and Wednesday, but again overall coverage is likely to be very low. High temps will remain above normal through mid week. Data remain consistent in translating a weak mid level low eastward across the Southern Plains for late week. The primary belt of westerlies will have shifted north providing several days of enhanced lift in vicinity of the forecast area. Furthermore moisture deepens in advance of this feature and the forecast will continue to trend upward with precip chances Thursday and Friday. Extensive convection and cloud cover will keep temps lower through late week. The severe weather potential will likely be low with a focus toward locally heavy rainfall. A potential frontal passage next weekend keeps daily precip chances through the extended forecast. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TUL 61 85 64 87 / 20 20 10 20 FSM 63 89 65 88 / 0 10 10 20 MLC 59 88 64 87 / 0 0 0 10 BVO 56 84 60 86 / 20 30 20 20 FYV 55 82 59 83 / 10 20 10 20 BYV 56 81 60 82 / 10 30 20 20 MKO 60 86 62 86 / 20 10 10 20 MIO 57 83 61 84 / 20 30 20 20 F10 59 87 63 86 / 20 10 10 10 HHW 61 87 65 87 / 0 0 0 0 && .TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...None. AR...None. && $$ LONG TERM....30