163 
FXUS65 KFGZ 242245
AFDFGZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
345 PM MST Wed May 24 2017

.SYNOPSIS...Expect dry, breezy, and warm conditions today. Low
pressure over the western United States will bring windy and
cooler conditions to northern Arizona from Thursday through
Friday. Lighter winds are forecast for the weekend as high
pressure builds in from the west.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Warm and dry conditions will continue through 
Thursday under the influence of a ridge of high pressure just east
of Arizona. An aproaching shortwave trough moving onto the 
southern California coast Thursday evening will cause a 
tightening pressure gradient over Arizona Thursday, causing an 
increase in southwest winds over the region for the next 48 hours.
Because of the strong winds and low RH expected Thursday, a red 
flag warning has been issued for Coconino, Navajo and Apache
counties. Strong winds are expected again Friday mostly in
southern Navajo and Apache counties.

The shortwave trough will move across northern Arizona Friday
dropping the temperatures some, but chances for precipitation 
over Northern Arizona appear to be minimal with very little 
moisture associated with the trough.

A large scale ridge across the Pacific Coast will slowly move
inland and is expected to dominate the weather scene through the
first half of next week with warm dry conditions as this ridge
builds into the region. Highs should be 5 to 10 degrees above
seasonal averages.

&&

.AVIATION...For the 00Z package...VFR conditions for the next 24 
hours. Surface winds SW 15-20KT gusts to 30KT becoming 10-15KT 
after 02Z...then becoming 15-25KT gust 35-40KT after 15Z. 
Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A dry and warm weather pattern will continue
through Thursday. Strong and gusty west-southwest winds are 
expected Thursday, and to a bit lesser extent on Friday. Areas of 
critical fire weather conditions are likely Thursday for much of 
northern Arizona.

Saturday through Monday...Seasonable temperatures will continue
through the Memorial Day Weekend with lighter winds expected. 

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...Red Flag Warning from 11 AM to 
8 PM MST Thursday FOR AZZ104>107-109>117-139-140.

Wind Advisory from 11 AM to 8 PM MST Thursday FOR AZZ004>007-
009>017-039-040.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...DLB/KD
AVIATION...DLB/KD 
FIRE WEATHER...KD

For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff