610 FXUS61 KRLX 132020 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 420 PM EDT Sat May 13 2017 .SYNOPSIS... A weak warm front late tonight into Sunday. The front will push southward as a cold front Sunday night. High pressure builds early next week, with a warming trend. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 145 PM Saturday... No significant changes in the near term period. Cloud cover across the area finally scattering out into cu field, should gradually dissipate as the night progresses. However, will see a weak disturbance move across the north late tonight, with an increase in cloud cover as it does so. This, along with surface winds increasing as the night progresses, should keep much fog at bay, although could see some of the deeper mountain valleys initially fog in late tonight. Warmer on Sunday, as a warm frontal boundary lifts north into the area. This may generate an isolated shower, but for the most part, looking at a day day. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... As of 420 PM Saturday... Cold front with limited moisture slips southward from the north on Sunday night, possibly triggering showers just ahead of it, mainly in and near the mountains. High pressure then builds down from the north on Monday, bringing dry weather through the balance of the period, as upper level ridging builds. Temperatures close to central guidance, except lower in the valleys Monday and Tuesday nights, with favorable conditions for radiative cooling and valley fog. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 420 AM Saturday... Upper level long wave ridge over the area undergoes a transition during this period. A short wave trough coming out of a long wave trough position over the Rockies cuts through the ridge, resulting in a short wave ridge moving off to the east of the forecast area, and the short wave trough passing to the north Wednesday night. Increasing warmth and moisture may be enough for elevated heat source based late day convection on Wednesday. For Thursday through Friday, a surface cold front initially driven by the exiting short wave trough sags southward toward the area, even as an upper level ridge rebuilds. This, along with a continued increase in warmth and, by this time, mainly humidity, will lead to the chance for late day convection. For Saturday, the upper level ridge moves east, leaving warm and humid conditions, with the continued chance for mainly late day and evening convection. Central guidance temperatures accepted, with the warmest day Wednesday before highs settle back a bit, but both highs and lows above normal through the period. && .AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 145 PM Saturday... Gradual improvement from MVFR to VFR expected, particularly after 20Z. Overnight, light surface winds with mainly sct to bkn vfr sky cover, although could be an area of MVFR conditions generally across north central WV generally after 07Z through 14Z, affecting sites such as KCKB and possibly KPKB. In addition, at this point, widespread fog overnight is not expected, although MVFR fog may initially develop early tonight, after 04Z in deeper/sheltered mountain valleys. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing of improvement to VFR this afternoon may vary from forecast. More fog could develop across the area early tonight before winds increase. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 EDT 1HRLY 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M EKN CONSISTENCY M M H H H H H H H H M L PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M CKB CONSISTENCY M H H H H H H H H H H M EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 EDT 1HRLY 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M EKN CONSISTENCY M M H H H H H H H H M L PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M CKB CONSISTENCY M H H H H H H H H H H M AFTER 18Z SUNDAY... Overnight/early morning IFR fog possible early next week. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...TRM/SL NEAR TERM...SL SHORT TERM...TRM LONG TERM...TRM AVIATION...SL