786 FXUS63 KILX 020159 AFDILX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lincoln IL 859 PM CDT Mon May 1 2017 .UPDATE... Issued at 852 PM CDT Mon May 1 2017 Deep upper low over eastern Wisconsin this evening continues to move away from central Illinois. However, the pressure gradient remains tight so winds will remain on the gusty side tonight and through most of Tuesday. IR satellite loop indicating the backedge of the cloud deck was over northeast Missouri, and based on the present movement, should start to edge into our southwest counties late tonight and across our northeast by dawn. The combination of the gusty winds and cool temperatures, along with a few light showers make it feel anything like the first of May. The shower activity is expected to gradually end from southwest to northeast late tonight as the surface low continues to push further away from central Illinois. The current forecast has a good handle on the late evening and early morning trends, as a result, no ZFP update is needed at this time. && .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday) ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT Mon May 1 2017 Deep 993 mb low with upper level closed low vertically stacked in SW Wisconsin will continue to move ENE over the upcoming day. The cold pool combined with upper level disturbances wrapping cyclonically around the upper low will keep scattered showers around the area until near midnight along/north of I-74, while isolated to scattered showers extend southward through much of the area for late afternoon/early evening. The coldest 850 mb temperatures associated with the post-cold-frontal air mass will arrive in the area this evening, lifting slightly NEward Tuesday. Lows will end up quite cool as a result, with low to mid 40s. Cooler temperatures and frost should be absent due to the persistent pressure gradient keeping breezy WSW winds 10-20 mph through the night. Gradient will diminish significantly by evening as a surface high begins to move into the area, therefore will see diminishing winds late afternoon Tuesday. Highs will be up several degrees, reaching the upper 50s/lower 60s...mid to upper 60s south of I-70 as partially clearing skies allow better heating, but still 5-10 degrees below normal. .LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday) ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT Mon May 1 2017 Tuesday night should be dry as the next upper wave digs out of the Rockies into the southern Plains. The wave looks to deepen and close in the lee of the Rockies. Precipitation develops in warm advection ahead of the surface low mainly along and south of a Jacksonville- Danville line Wednesday into Thursday night as the surface low looks to track into the Ohio River Valley and slow down due to a blocking ridge to the east. Latest model trends have increased precipitation amounts substantially for the southern half of the state, and precipitation amounts now look to be around 1 to 1.25 inches from Springfield-Danville ranging up to 2 to 2.5 south of I-70. Lesser amounts north of the Springfield-Danville line shouldn't be much of a problem, but to the south the amounts could exacerbate flooding conditions. Instability looks to be weak in general, but potentially supports some thunder south of I-70 Thursday. Next chance for a wave with precip is showing up in the amplified northerly flow aloft around the main trof that remains over the eastern Great Lakes through the weekend. High temperatures in the Wednesday to Friday remain in the upper 50s to lower 60s, followed by mid to upper 60s over the weekend into next week, but some potential for a bit cooler weather over the weekend if northerly flow pushes a bit further west than current model blends. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening) Issued at 633 PM CDT Mon May 1 2017 The strong storm system that has been bringing the gusty winds and occasional MVFR cigs will slowly pull away from the area tonight. The tight pressure gradient will keep the winds rather gusty overnight, although not as strong as what we experienced today. The low VFR and occasional MVFR cigs will continue thru the evening, along with a few showers, before we see cigs lift and possibly scatter out at SPI, DEC and CMI after 04z, and gradually across our north in the 09z-11z time frame. Scattered occasionally broken VFR cigs will be possible across the north during the day on Tuesday with mainly a scattered cloud base further south between 3500-4500 feet. Westerly winds at 12 to 17 kts with occasional gusts up to 23 kts tonight, with west winds expected on Tuesday at 12 to 17 kts with again a few gusts up to 23 kts into the afternoon hours. && .ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Flash Flood Watch until midnight CDT tonight for ILZ051. && $$ UPDATE...Smith SHORT TERM...37 LONG TERM...37 AVIATION...Smith