108 FXUS61 KBGM 230549 AFDBGM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Binghamton NY 149 AM EDT Sun Apr 23 2017 .SYNOPSIS... A sunny day with moderating temperatures can be expected to round out the weekend, courtesy of high pressure. Dry again Monday, then our next chance of showers will occur Monday night through Tuesday night from a weak disturbance moving up the East Coast. This will be followed by another dry day Wednesday, with highs reaching into the 70s for most locations. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/... 800 pm update... Made some significant adjustments to cloud cover this evening to account for higher clouds from short wave rippling northeast across the middle atlantic states. Also kept isolated rain showers in Oneida County for another 1-2 hours given radar trends. Low clouds clearing as expected but will keep more clouds in forecast this evening with more clearing later tonight after short wave passes by. Made only minor adjustments to minimum temperatures. 245 pm update... Stratocumulus clouds continue to hold stubbornly over most of the region as of mid-afternoon. However, a clearing trend has been developing across southern Ontario and far western/northern NY. As drier low-level air pushes in, we expect clearing skies to continue to work towards the southeast, first developing over the Finger Lakes, Mohawk Valley, and southern Tug Hill areas later this afternoon, eventually reaching NY's southern tier and NEPA during the course of the evening. Other than some patchy thin cirrus clouds, later tonight should feature generally clear skies. Winds will also become light overnight, with a surface high pressure ridge approaching. The combination of clear skies and little wind, along with wet ground conditions, and added evapotranspiration as leaves continue to come out in the river valleys, should lead to some patchy fog towards daybreak. Readings will be chilly overnight, ranging from the mid 30s- lower 40s in most areas by daybreak. Sunday will feature sunny skies, still relatively light winds, and milder temperatures than wE experienced Saturday. Afternoon highs should range in the 60s. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/... 250 pm update... A quiet weather pattern is in store, with a large high pressure ridge our dominant feature. Sunday night will be mainly clear once again, with overnight lows in the upper 30s and 40s. Monday should remain generally rain-free, although a developing east-southeast flow is expected to bring an increase in clouds, particularly for NEPA and the Western Catskills of NY. Typically in these types of patterns, our Lake Ontario plain counties of CNY see the warmest temperatures, while the Pocono plateau and the Catskills are cooler. This should be the case again Monday, with afternoon highs ranging from the mid-upper 50s over the higher terrain of the Poconos and Catskills, to the mid-upper 60s from the central southern tier and Finger Lakes areas, up towards Syracuse, the Mohawk Valley, and the southern Tug Hill region. Although a few light showers or sprinkles can't be ruled out late in the day over NEPA and Sullivan county NY, we expect the vast majority of the rainfall to hold off until after dark. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... 330 pm update... Main concerns in the long term are focused around the potential for rain showers Monday night and Tuesday, with another shot of showers and possibly a few storms Wednesday night and Thursday...and the onset of additional scattered showers and storms heading into the weekend. Will also highlight the warming trend that will be felt through the latter half of the week. A closed low off the coast of South Carolina Monday evening will lift to the n/ne Tuesday night along the mid-Atlantic coast, and eventually off the New England coast Wednesday night. As this large scale system move north, a narrow band of deep moisture embedded within a short wave ahead of the system will act to produce a few rain showers across PA/NY Monday night. The rain will likely be fairly persistent through the day Tuesday as the main forcing from the upper low rotates newd along the coast. The best chance for a quarter to half inch of rain will likely be east of I-81. The drier air to the west will likely limit the amt of rain to less than a two tenths of an inch west of I-81. As soon as the upper low passes to the east, upper level ridging and large scale suppression will begin, which will act to end much of the rain Wednesday morning. Will see fairly significant warm air advection on Wed, but with conditions remaining fairly dry as the upper ridge remains in place. Much of central NY and ne PA will see a noticeable warm up, with highs topping out in the 70s. The ridge axis begins to shift to the east Wed night and Thur morning as the next upper low begins to roll ewd through the Great Lakes. This next system appears to have rather cold air associated with it...850mb temps -10 to -15 deg C...but the air mass is not expected to make a direct impact on cntrl NY and ne PA as the track of the low will remain well to the north. The cold front extending to the south will only brush the region on Thursday with a few showers and thunderstorms. The cold front will transition to a warm/stationary front on Friday and continue to tap into the warm/humid air mass being drawn up from the south under a building upper level ridge. The front will linger into the weekend and allow the active showery/stormy pattern to persist as well. Temperatures in the 70s and possibly lower 80s will continue late in the week, and into the weekend. && .AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... VFR as high pressure takes over with mainly clear sky for the duration, with one exception early this morning. Wet ground from recent rain, near calm wind with radiational cooling, and greening up just getting started for the KELM area will lead to patchy valley fog. Figuring on a short window of fluctuation into IFR VIS 10Z-12Z for KELM, though there is still some uncertainty as this is not yet a good time of year for valley fog and the air mass that is moving in is very dry. Winds will be light-variable, then generally WSW-W around 5 knots late morning through afternoon. Outlook... Monday...VFR. Monday night through Tuesday night...Restrictions possible, as showers move back into the region. Wednesday through Wednesday night...VFR other than a brief restriction/shower still possible early morning for KBGM-KAVP. Thursday...Restrictions again possible, with at least scattered showers anticipated and a chance of thunder. && .BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MDP NEAR TERM...DJN/MLJ SHORT TERM...MLJ LONG TERM...BJT AVIATION...MDP