982 FXUS66 KPQR 151729 AFDPQR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Portland OR 1030 AM PDT Sat Apr 15 2017 .SYNOPSIS...High pressure will bring an end to the shower activity over the nw part of the forecast area today, and will bring clearing skies for much of the forecast are today and tonight. High pressure will shift east of the Cascades tonight and Sunday, bringing dry and mild offshore flow to much of the district. Meanwhile, low pressure off the Northern California coast Sunday morning will start to lift northward, eventually spreading rain south to north across the forecast area Sunday evening. Unsettled weather will continue through midweek as a series of Pacific systems move onshore into the Pac NW. Drier weather is possible Friday as an upper level ridge moves across the region. && .SHORT TERM...Today through Monday...Showers seen on radar this morning mainly relegated to areas from the south WA coast to down off the north OR coast. A weak shortwave weas moving onshore over nw WA this morning as seen in water vapor imagery, and will cross WA during the day today. Will hang on to a small chance for showers across the northern part of the forecast area today, before subsidence ends all chance for showers this evening. There are a few areas of valley stratus and fog this morning in the stable low level air mass, but the areas were not extensive and should burn off this morning with the April sun. A northerly offshore flow will strengthen tonight asnd turn easterly, provind further drying of the low level air mass. The offshore flow will warm temps above normal Sun, something we haven't seen a lot of this Spring. With h8 temps expected around 6 deg C, could see high temps reach into the upper 60s in the interior valleys, although high clouds ahead of the next approaching low may knock a few degs off the potential highs. The offshore flow should also allow the coast to warm into the 60s. Models continue to suggest a small chance for showers by late Sun as a southerly flow spreads moisture up from the south ahead of the incoming low. Remainder of short term discussion unchanged...The previously mentioned low pressure system will not be all that strong at the surface, likely staying above 1000 mb. The upper level portion of this system is a little more impressive, and may result in a bit more of a convective nature to this system Sun night/Mon. On the flip side, if the associated upper low opens up and lifts NE through Oregon like the 00z GFS/ECMWF suggest, there may be a band of more stratiform deformation-related precip somewhere over our forecast area. Either way, Sunday night and Monday will likely turn increasingly wet...especially as the next Pacific frontal system follows and brings a chance for more organized rain late Monday or Monday night. None of these systems appear particularly strong, but these and a couple additional systems will likely keep the weather unsettled for much of the upcoming week after our relatively dry and mild Easter Sunday. Weagle .LONG TERM...No Changes. Previous discussion follows... Monday night through Friday...Another rather progressive pattern will bring several periods of rain to the region next week. An initial shortwave will continued precipitation Monday night into early Tuesday, while the main upper low will advance and an associated front will slide through the region Wednesday. A brief break in the precipitation is possible late Thursday into early Friday as heights rise in between systems, with clearing skies and a drier air mass pushing temperatures up into at least the mid 60s. However, at this point, it seems that a 70 degree reading will continue to be elusive for yet another week. Clouds return late Friday night as the next front approaches, with precipitation possible again Saturday. Cullen && .AVIATION...Ribbons of IFR/LIFR with spotty VLIFR cigs along the interior valleys this morning, also with fog reported at KEUG. Expect most area will see the low stratus break up by 18z however, northerly flow up the Willamette Valley could prove problematic at KEUG today. Climatology for KEUG suggests Vsby will improve into IFR around 17z while Cigs may last more toward 19z. There's a fair amount of low level clouds and fog stretching north toward KSLE, however, so fell climatology may be a bit too optimistic today. Otherwise, just some showers with BKN MVFR Cigs at KAST while the rest of the area remains VFR through the evening. Coastal terminals and KEUG look to drop back under a low cloud/fog regime late overnight tonight through tomorrow morning. KPDX AND APPROACHES...Thin LIFR cigs at KPDX should break by 17z. Then VFR will remain through tomorrow morning. /JBonk && .MARINE...High pressure building across the Pacific Northwest and will produce increasing northeasterly winds across the waters late Saturday and Sunday. High resolution models are showing a fairly solid threat for north/northeasterly wind gusts around 25 kt beginning late this afternoon starting first across the central Oregon waters. Winds will then veer to east overnight with the primary threat shifting to the northern waters through Sunday morning. Have issued a SCA for winds to address. More active weather will return next week. The first front will likely spread southerly winds of 20 to 30 kt across the waters during the second half of Monday with some gusty winds lingering into Tuesday. The next frontal storm system appears likely to arrive Wednesday before quieter weather returns for a day or two towards the end of next week. There is a chance the Monday and/or Wednesday storm system could push winds into low end Gale gust criteria of 35 kt, but for now kept this out of the official forecast given confidence is relatively low in this actually occurring at this point. JBonk/Neuman && .PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OR...None. WA...None. PZ...Small Craft Advisory for winds from 6 PM this evening to noon PDT Sunday for Coastal Waters from Cape Shoalwater WA to Cascade Head OR out 60 nm. Small Craft Advisory for winds from 4 PM this afternoon to 4 AM PDT Sunday for Coastal Waters from Cascade Head OR to Florence OR out 60 nm. && $$ Interact with us via social media: www.facebook.com/NWSPortland www.twitter.com/NWSPortland This discussion is for Northwest Oregon and Southwest Washington from the Cascade crest to 60 nautical miles offshore. The area is commonly referred to as the forecast area.