101 FXUS61 KRLX 101856 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 256 PM EDT Mon Apr 10 2017 .SYNOPSIS... A high pressure system will slowly give way to an approaching frontal system Tuesday. A weak cold front moves through Tuesday night. High pressure for mid week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 240 PM Monday... Models agree on slowing the cold front from the west somewhat on Tuesday, even though the GFS is still the fastest. In any event, the front itself by 00Z Wednesday will still be just west of our CWA. Will be slower bringing pops across the area on Tuesday with most of the precip still over the western half of the area by 00Z Wednesday. However, the slower movement allows more moisture to advect into our area ahead of the front on a decent southwesterly flow. A wave moving up along the front will enhance a band of convection along and ahead of the front, so am going with likely pops in this band. In addition, the greater moisture and dynamics will enhance instability, so have gone with greater thunderstorm coverage. The temperatures tonight will be quite mild, especially in the west with a continuing southwest flow and increasing clouds, and a bit lower in the valleys mainly in the east under clear skies and decoupling winds. For Tuesday, warmest temperatures will be in the east with more sunshine, lower in the west with the clouds and increasing showers. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... As of 234 AM Monday... A weak cold front will push through the region Tuesday/Tuesday night, providing some showers and thunderstorms. While precipitable water is only in the inch to 1.25 range, there is a bit of concern about the slow movement of the boundary leading to some training storms. A high pressure system then builds in for Wednesday/Wednesday night. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 234 AM Monday... Major differences in the deterministic models during this period, leading to a low confidence forecast. && .AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... 18Z Monday thru 18Z Tuesday... As of 150 PM Monday... High pressure will slowly give way to an approaching cold front Tuesday. East of the Ohio River, VFR. Thin high clouds through 12Z Tuesday, thereafter mid clouds increase from the west. West of the Ohio River, VFR with high clouds lowering to mid clouds by 15Z Tuesday morning. After 15Z MVFR ceilings spread across southeast Ohio with showers and thunderstorms increasing. Southwesterly winds 12 to 17 MPH this afternoon with gusts in the 20 to 25 mph range, then diminishing to 5 to 12 MPH 00Z-03Z tonight, increasing again Tuesday to 12 to 17 MPH by 18Z. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: None. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 EDT 1HRLY 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M AFTER 18Z TUESDAY... Brief IFR possible in thunderstorms Tuesday/Tuesday night. && .FIRE WEATHER... As of 230 PM Monday... Red Flag Warning for Carter and Greenup counties in eastern Kentucky this afternoon and early evening. Expecting RH values around 20 percent this afternoon with modest recovery expected by 00Z. Winds will be sustained southwesterly winds at 12 to 15 mph with gusts of 22 to 27 mph during the afternoon. Additional areas outside the northern mountains will experience enhanced fire danger. SPS through 11/00Z to cover this. RH values this afternoon will mainly be in the low 20s. Occasional southwesterly gusts to around 20 mph this afternoon. Any outdoor burning is strongly discouraged this afternoon. Winds diminish around sunset. A cold front will approach by Tuesday morning and slowly cross the area from Tuesday into Wednesday morning. Increasing moisture and showers should allow fire conditions to improve beginning Tuesday. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...Red Flag Warning until 8 PM EDT this evening for KYZ101>103- 105. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...RPY/JMV/DTC NEAR TERM...JSH/JMV/DTC SHORT TERM...JMV LONG TERM...RPY AVIATION...JMV FIRE WEATHER...JMV