457 FXUS64 KLZK 100509 AFDLZK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Little Rock AR 1209 AM CDT Mon Apr 10 2017 .AVIATION... Overall VFR flight conditions are forecast for the next 24 hours. Some clouds with patchy VFR ceilings will be seen across mainly western AR overnight. Also toward Monday morning, patchy MVFR ceilings will be possible, especially over southern AR. Isolated showers may be seen over northwestern AR overnight. Winds will remain elevated from the south at 5 to 15 mph with some gusts to around 20 mph in spots. On Monday, showers and isolated thunderstorms will be later in the day and affect all Taf sites. && .PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 900 PM CDT Sun Apr 9 2017) Discussion... Overall forecast on track. Increasing clouds tonight, with a slight chance of showers, isolated thunder possible, will be seen and mainly over northwest AR. Some shortwave energy is moving through the upper west flow and moving over northwest AR. This convection will increase on Monday as additional upper level energy moves across AR, as well as a cold front slowly moves through the region. Lows tonight will be in the mid 50s to lower 60s. Winds have lowered this evening and will again be elevated on Monday ahead of the cold front. (59) Prev Discussion.../ Issued 635 PM CDT Sun Apr 9 2017/ Aviation... Overall VFR flight conditions are forecast for the next 24 hours. Some clouds with patchy VFR ceilings will be seen across mainly northern AR overnight. Toward Monday morning, isolated showers may be seen over northwestern AR. Winds will remain elevated from the south this evening at 10 to 20 mph with gusts around 25 mph. Later this evening wind speeds will lower to5 to 15 mph with some gusts to around 20 mph. On Monday, showers and isolated thunderstorms will be later in the day and affect all Taf sites. (59) Prev Discussion.../ Issued 313 PM CDT Sun Apr 9 2017/ SHORT TERM...Tonight Through Tuesday Breezy south/southwest winds will continue tonight into Monday. A Lake Wind Advisory remains in effect through 800 pm CDT this evening. A cold front will slowly approach from the northwest the next couple of days. The front will get little push from the main system, which will go well to the north. The front will bring isolated to scattered thunderstorms in northern/western Arkansas later tonight. Chances for precipitation will continue mainly in the northwest half of the state on Monday. Rain will become more widespread Monday night into Tuesday, and this is when areas of heavy rain could occur in central/southern Arkansas. Even so, half inch to inch and a half amounts are expected, with locally over two inches. With not a lot of dynamics as the main system stays to the north, any severe storms will be spotty during this event. The front will start exiting to the south as the period ends, with high pressure starting to build into the area from the north. As far as temperatures, readings will be above average through Monday night, with closer to seasonal readings on Tuesday. LONG TERM...Tuesday Night Through Sunday The cold front will be exiting the state at the start of the long term. However, the break from rain will be short-lived. Weak ridging will take place through the middle of the week and attempt to keep shortwave action to our north on Thursday. Went liberal with the rain chances...keeping them higher to the north with at least some slight POPs across the central part of the state. A cold front will attempt to push through on Friday but with very little moisture in place, the rain chances remain slight with unsettled pattern to continue through the weekend. Summer like temps will be noted through the long term...keeping us nearly 10 degrees above average for mid spring. && .LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE. && $$ Aviation...56