945 FXUS64 KCRP 280212 AAB AFDCRP Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX 912 PM CDT Mon Mar 27 2017 .DISCUSSION... At this time the forecast is doing just fine. As a result, see no need to make any changes at this time. 00Z CRP sounding shows a pretty good cap between 850mb-750mb level. Models projecting this cap to remain through 06Z Wednesday then erode some mainly over the NE CWFA by 12Z. This implies southern-most areas likely not to see too much in rainfall for Wednesday, which forecast pretty much is saying. In short: nothing broken so nothing will be changed at this time. && .PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /Issued 626 PM CDT Mon Mar 27 2017/ DISCUSSION... See Aviation discussion for 00Z TAFs. AVIATION... Good low level jet is forecast to develop later tonight, which should limit fog formation and delay the MVFR conditions somewhat (still am expecting them). However, with the southerly flow, we should see MVFR CIGs at KVCT before 06Z (going about 03Z), with MVFR CIGs developing AOA 05Z at KALI and AFT 06Z at KCRP and KLRD. Could have some BKN V SCT overnight but do not want to get too precise with that as overall the CIGS should be MVFR. Borderline wind shear mainly at KCRP and KALI, but will hold off for now as surface winds may stay up enough to preclude. Appears that the CIGS should lift AOA 15Z with gusty southerly winds during the day, increasing with time. No rainfall mentioned in the forecast. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /Issued 340 PM CDT Mon Mar 27 2017/ SHORT TERM (Tonight through Tuesday Night)... Surface cold front is stalled just northwest of forecast area with a band of stratus ahead of it. This stratus is starting to dissipate late this afternoon and should allow northwest zones to still warm into the 80s despite being held in the 70s so far today. The wind pattern is rather messy over western half of CWA at this time, but should gradually return to a predominant southeasterly flow as meso features along the cloud band mix out. Overnight, expect stratus and possibly some patchy fog to redevelop. Think more on the side of stratus tonight due to deepening moist layer. Next upper system will be approaching the area on Tuesday and will lead to yet again a breezy day across the region. Will look for wind gusts around 30 mph once again. Progressing of this system and associated front look just a bit slower, and have backed off on beginning mentionable precip chances. Will hold off on PoPs until Tuesday night period. Temperatures should warm back into the upper 80s and lower 90s. Models in relatively good agreement about the approach of this upper level system and associated precipitation, although ECMWF remains a bit more robust with QPF...and a bit faster. Increased PoPs slightly for Tuesday night, but expect just slight chance to chance precip with the best chances northwest. LONG TERM (Wednesday through Monday)... An upper low progged to move across TX Wed will push a dryline into the CWA Wed and then a weak front Wed night/Thu morning. Ahead of the dryline on Wed, moisture is progged to increase and pool across the eastern CWA. Models also show a very unstable airmass, moderate low level convergence and upper level divergence with an 80KT jet nosing across S TX. However, forecast soundings show a strong SSW LLJ ahead of the sfc bdry which typically results in a strong cap. Models do show the cap weakening through the day. The combination of these features is expected to produce NUM SHRA/TSRA's across VCT, with pops tapering off farther S and W ahead and along the dryline bdry. Drier air pushes across the western CWA Wed night, however sufficient moisture remains in place across the east for ISOL/SCT convection to continue through Wed night then exit to the E-NE as the upper system begins to also exit to the NE. SPC has the northeastern tip of the CWA in a slight risk for svr wx and a marginal risk slightly farther S and W on Wed. The best chcs will be to the N and NE of the VCT Crossroads. There may be a few strong storms with gusty winds and small hail. A brief spinup is also not out of the question as there is a brief window when the shear is stronger. Behind the coldfront Thu afternoon, drier and slightly cooler conditions are expected. Night time lows will be more noticeable Thu night. Fri looks dry with increasing rain chcs once again over the weekend with another system approaching the area. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Corpus Christi 71 84 72 87 66 / 10 10 10 30 20 Victoria 69 85 71 85 65 / 10 10 30 70 30 Laredo 71 94 69 93 64 / 10 10 20 10 10 Alice 70 89 71 92 63 / 10 10 10 30 20 Rockport 73 83 73 82 69 / 10 10 10 50 30 Cotulla 69 92 67 93 61 / 10 10 40 20 10 Kingsville 71 88 72 91 65 / 10 10 10 20 20 Navy Corpus 72 80 73 84 69 / 10 10 10 30 30 && .CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ GW/86...SHORT TERM