422 FXUS65 KBYZ 242101 AFDBYZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Billings MT 301 PM MDT Fri Mar 24 2017 .SHORT TERM...valid for Sat and Sun... Thin high clouds were spilling over the ridge into the area this afternoon. Baroclinic leaf associated with upper trough along the Pacific Coast, was seen on satellite imagery approaching the region. System's cold front was seen moving E through the Pacific NW. The trough will approach the area tonight and an upper jet will bring right-rear quadrant divergence to the area on Saturday. Models bring the cold front into the west after 06Z tonight, which will cut off any gusty gap winds. Went with chance PoPs over and near the western mountains beginning at 09Z. The front moves through the region during Sat., with model differences in QPF fields. The NAEFS table showed abnormally high precipitable waters over the area Sat. afternoon and evening, so blended in higher QPF's from the GFS into the forecast. Spread chance PoPs E through the central zones through 18Z, then had them over the rest of the area Sat. afternoon. Went with likely PoPs over the SW mountains, NE Bighorns and foothills. The flow will turn northerly through 700 mb, which will favor certain higher elevation areas. Added isolated thunder to the west Sat. afternoon with lifted indices around zero degrees C. The upper trough will cross the area Sat. night through Sunday while splitting. The 700 mb front will move through the SE zones Sat. night bringing the likelihood of precipitation to that area. Continued likely PoPs in the SW mountains, NE Bighorns and foothills, with chance PoPs elsewhere. The area will dry out from W to E late Sat. night through Sunday morning. Sunday afternoon and evening will be dry under the next ridge, then chances for rain/snow showers will move into the W again under diffluence from the next Pacific trough. Temperatures reached the 60s in many areas this afternoon. Highs will be in the 50s behind the front on Sat., with some 60s possible over the E ahead of the front. On Sun., highs will be from the mid 50s to lower 60s. Arthur .LONG TERM...valid for Mon...Tue...Wed...Thu...Fri... A progressive spring weather pattern will continue through the extended period with chances for precipitation about every other day. None of the precipitation events individually look terribly heavy, but combined a few places could see over an inch of precipitation by next weekend. Areas from Rosebud county east look to be the most favored for this eventuality. While there is not a lot of cold air associated with any of these systems, there is the potential for some snow wet snow accumulations in the foothills and higher hilltops across the plains, as well as the mountains. Systems arrive Monday night, then again Thursday and Saturday. Highs look to stay in the 50s and 60s with lows in the 30s through the period. Chambers && .AVIATION... VFR conditions and mostly clear skies will prevail through this evening. Gusty winds will continue at KLVM through the evening as well. Clouds and increasing chances for rain and mountain snow move in from the west by Saturday morning after 12z along with widespread mountain obscurations. Confidence is too low to mention in TAF but MVFR conditions are possible as this disturbance passes through on Saturday. Dobbs && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS... Sat Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri ----------------------------------------------------------- BIL 044/056 036/057 038/060 041/053 036/059 039/057 037/050 15/W 41/B 02/W 45/R 21/B 23/W 53/W LVM 038/051 030/055 034/055 032/051 032/057 036/054 032/049 35/T 51/B 25/W 84/O 11/B 36/W 43/W HDN 040/056 033/060 035/063 039/055 034/061 036/060 037/052 15/W 31/B 02/W 45/R 21/B 12/W 54/W MLS 040/060 038/061 037/065 041/055 036/060 038/062 037/053 03/W 31/B 01/B 36/R 41/B 11/B 33/W 4BQ 038/062 038/058 036/063 038/054 036/058 036/060 036/051 03/W 72/W 01/B 46/R 51/U 11/B 54/W BHK 036/062 037/059 033/062 036/054 035/057 034/059 035/050 03/W 63/W 01/B 37/R 62/W 11/B 23/W SHR 037/055 033/055 032/059 036/051 033/059 035/059 035/049 16/W 62/W 02/W 55/R 31/U 12/W 55/W && .BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MT...None. WY...None. && $$ weather.gov/billings