067 
FXUS65 KFGZ 232245
AFDFGZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
343 PM MST Thu Mar 23 2017

.SYNOPSIS...A cold low pressure area will continue to move 
eastward across Arizona this evening. Showers and thunderstorms will 
decreases from west to east this evening and more rapidly after 
dark. Dry conditions are expected Friday. Additional low pressure 
systems will move across the Southwest region Saturday and again 
next week.

&&

.Discussion...An area of low pressure continues to move across 
northern Arizona this afternoon. Scattered rain and snow showers 
with isolated thunderstorms (some with small hail) will continue 
this afternoon and into this evening. This activity will decrease 
from west to east as the low moves east and it gets dark (loss of 
surface heating). Much of the precipitation should end by around 
midnight. 

The current system will move east of the state tonight with brief 
ridging and much warmer temperatures on Friday. Then next trough 
will affect the area Saturday into Saturday night, bringing a chance 
of precipitation mainly to areas north of a Prescott-Window Rock 
from Flagstaff northward. At this point, amounts appear light with 
snow levels 7000 to 8000 feet.

Fair and warmer conditions return Sunday into early Monday, then
more unsettled weather looks to return to the region with cooler and 
showery weather possible starting late Monday.  The EC moves this 
low into New Mexico by early Wednesday morning. The GFS is showing a 
much stronger system that cuts off and then moves into New Mexico by 
Thursday morning. Either solution (or a combination of the two) will 
bring a period of cold, wet, and windy weather to northern Arizona. 
Stay tuned as details become more certain. 

&&

.AVIATION...For the 00Z Package...Scattered to numerous 
SHRA/SHSN with isolated thunder persisting through 03-05Z this 
evening before dissipating. Expect MVFR conditions with heavier 
showers producing IFR. Snow levels will remain 6000-6500 ft MSL. 
Skies clearing W to E aft 05Z, with primarily VFR returning aft 06Z. 
There is potential for fog development, primarily along the Mogollon 
Rim and the KFLG terminal late tonight through early Fri morning. 
Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments.



&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MAS
AVIATION...MCT


For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff