141 FXUS64 KOHX 170750 AFDOHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Nashville TN 250 AM CDT Fri Mar 17 2017 .DISCUSSION... Cloud cover is working its way into the area ahead of the precip chances later today. Some echoes are showing up on radar but it appears too dry yet for precip to reach the surface. Temperatures did reach the upper 20s on the Plateau before the cloud cover arrived, and since the cloud cover has moved in, temps have climbed into the low 30s out east. Dewpoints have also climbed slightly, but are only in the upper teens to mid 20s across the mid state. Some concern with early precip with such dry air in the low levels would be the potential for some sleet before sunrise as wet bulb temps are below 0C in some areas. However, since temps are dry, its more likely that early precip will evaporate and moisten the low levels before rain really gets going, so for now just left in the rain mention this morning. Winds look to pick up out of the south this morning, which will also help low level mixing and get dewpoints up as well as temperatures. Models have backed off on instability a bit but enough exists for mention of thunder today, so kept schc thunderstorms in mainly for the afternoon and early evening. Cold front looks to arrive and push through the mid state after midnight tonight into the morning Saturday as the upper trough slides just south of the Great Lakes. Strong subsidence behind the front looks to clear skies out pretty quickly on Saturday, so skies should be mostly sunny by the afternoon. There may be some chance that clouds stick around a bit longer, and even return to the northeast zones as a lobe of vorticity clips the area, but for now stuck with model consensus keeping Saturday afternoon mainly clear. Upper ridging builds over the Plains Sunday and slowly slides east, so looking at a dry Sunday and early Monday before another northern trough brings back precip chances late Monday and into Tuesday. Another cold front will also move through the region Tuesday afternoon and evening, so if skies clear out after fropa, some freezing temps may return Wednesday morning along the northern zones and on the Plateau. Kept the daytime Wednesday dry, but have some slight chances for precip Wednesday night and Thursday with some minor shortwave activity ahead of the broad Plains trough. Models are backing off of precip chances Thursday, so wouldnt be surprised if Wednesday and Thursday are dry before the next precip event starts moving in Friday and Saturday. Both the GFS and ECMWF have decent agreement on a large trough moving in next Friday and into Saturday. The GFS is more aggressive digging the trough southward while the ECMWF has a bit weaker wave. The trough axis between the models has good agreement however, as well as precip timing late Friday, but start to diverge after that. Good news is this system looks to be quite warm, so showers and even some thunderstorms look to be the precip type since 0C 850mb temps are way up in the Great Lakes region. After the precip moves through Saturday, it looks like weekend temps will be above average per model consensus so far, and hoping that holds to get spring that much closer. && .AVIATION... 06Z TAF DISCUSSION. Increasing moisture should spread west to east across the mid state region thru 18/06Z as sfc frontal system approaches our region and then moves into western portions of mid state. A slow progression from VFR to MVFR ceilings is expected, especially as the 17/13Z-18/00Z time frame progresses. IFR ceilings with the possibility of predominate tstms will be possible generally after 18/00Z as system moves into the mid state region. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Nashville 59 48 64 35 61 / 70 90 10 0 0 Clarksville 58 44 61 34 61 / 70 90 0 0 0 Crossville 54 47 58 31 55 / 60 90 20 0 0 Columbia 59 50 64 35 61 / 60 90 10 0 0 Lawrenceburg 60 51 65 35 61 / 50 90 20 0 0 Waverly 59 47 63 36 61 / 70 100 0 0 0 && .OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Freeze Warning until 8 AM CDT this morning FOR Cumberland- Fentress-Overton-Pickett-Putnam-Van Buren-White. && $$ DISCUSSION......Barnwell AVIATION........31