478 
FXUS64 KSJT 162048
AFDSJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
348 PM CDT Thu Mar 16 2017

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Friday)

The warming trend in our temperatures will continue through Friday.
Weak shortwave ridge over Texas is weakening and shifting east, but 
an upstream ridge will begin to build over the Rockies on Friday. An 
upper trough will move southeast across the upper Midwest on Friday, 
with trailing portion of associated cold front moving south across 
Oklahoma and into northwestern Texas by Friday evening. 

Low-level moisture return tonight will result in low cloud 
development and northward expansion across our southern and central 
counties overnight. Temperatures will be rather mild, with lows only 
expected to be in the upper 50s to lower 60s. With low-level jet 
development, gusty south winds will occur overnight across the Big 
Country, and to some extent across the Concho Valley. 

South winds will continue across our through the day Friday, 
although some veering to the southwest is expected for some of our 
western and northern counties. A dryline will mix east into the 
western Big Country and northwestern Concho Valley on Friday 
afternoon. With weak surface convergence along the dryline and 
approaching cold front Friday afternoon, along with limited 
moisture, the chance for any shower/thunderstorm development in our 
far northern and northwestern counties looks too remote to mention 
in the forecast. Low cloud cover early in the day will break up by 
mid- to late morning, with mostly sunny skies in the afternoon. With 
low-level thermal ridge building into our area from the west, 
temperatures Friday afternoon will be rather warm with highs 
expected to be in the mid to upper 80s. 

.LONG TERM...
(Friday Night through Thursday)

Quiet weather through the weekend and into early next week across
West Central Texas. Morning low clouds give way to afternoon
sunshine. Overnight lows in the 50s and 60s, with afternoon highs
in the upper 70s to mid 80s. A weak cold front will move through
the Big Country on Tuesday, dropping temperatures a few degrees
but remaining well above normal.

Models indicate an upper trough moving into the Rockies for
Wednesday and Thursday, with a dryline becoming established across
West Texas northward through the Panhandle. Models have gone back
and forth a little on chances for convection, but worth a mention
of a slight chance of thunderstorms.  

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene 	 61  87  58  79 /   5   5   5  10 
San Angelo 	 60  88  60  83 /   5   0   0  10 
Junction 	 60  85  60  77 /   0   0   5  10 
Brownwood 	 59  85  60  78 /   5   5   5  10 
Sweetwater 	 61  86  57  79 /   5   0   5  10 
Ozona      	 59  85  59  79 /   5   0   0  10 

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

19/07