238 FXUS62 KILM 032000 AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 300 PM EST Fri Mar 3 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Winter has returned for the weekend with the threat of freezing temperatures both Saturday and Sunday morning. A warming trend will bring a return of mild air through early next week as high pressure migrates offshore. An approaching cold front may bring rain next Wednesday, followed by a cooling and drying trend late next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 300 PM Friday...A dry cold front accompanied by gusty NW winds and a few flat cu is now dropping SE across the forecast area. The front will move offshore later this afternoon. The reinforcing shot of cold and dry air following this feature will allow temperatures overnight to drop to around or below freezing for nearly all locations. Our SC beaches will likely escape freezing temperatures. Have modified current Freeze Watch/Warning products to include all of our forecast area, aside from the aforementioned SC beaches, in a Freeze Warning for overnight. Dewpoints dropping into the upper teens and continued mixing should preclude significant frost formation. Saturday will be dry and sunny with seasonal temperatures as Canadian high pressure builds in from the west. A consensus of guidance gives us highs only in the mid to upper 50s. This is about 10 degrees below normal. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... As of 300 PM Friday...Expect chilly temps overnight Saturday as sfc high pressure shifts overhead. This will produce ideal radiational cooling conditions with clear skies and calm winds. Temps will drop below freezing in most spots, except right along the coast where ocean temps around 60 will help keep them a bit higher. Overall expect temps between 25 and 30 most places. After a chilly start Sun morning, temps will recover but should still not make it above 60 in a deep NW-N flow aloft and abundant sunshine. The ridge aloft begins to move east with rising heights through early next week, but a dry and cool air mass will remain in place through Sun night. The sfc high will shift farther east allowing for a more on shore flow to increase moisture slightly. Therefore, dewpoint temps in the 20s will begin to recover into the 30s by Sun night. This will help keep overnight lows a bit higher than previous nights, but still below normal most places. Guidance is showing temps in the mid 30s && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 333 AM Friday...Primary features include a substantial warming trend MON-WED followed by a cold frontal late Wednesday into early Thursday and off the coast. A return to highs in the 70s on tap TUE-WED with 0.10-0.25 inches of rain possible late Wednesday, and if things hold, a cooling/drying trend beginning Thursday sometime. The coolest period is Monday morning and warmest Wednesday afternoon. The breeziest period is late Tuesday and early Wednesday in warm sector flow. The instability parameters suggest a slight chance of a TSTM late Tuesday through late Wednesday, but no severe weather signatures seen as yet. && .AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 18z...Expect VFR through the TAF valid period for all terminals as cool and dry high pressure builds over the eastern Carolinas. Wind gusts, now in the 20 to 25 mph range, will diminish later this afternoon. Extended Outlook...VFR expected through the period. && .MARINE... .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 300 PM Friday...Small Craft Advisory will remain in effect from this afternoon through Saturday morning as a cool and dry Canadian High Pressure system builds in from the west. Winds will kick up a bit from the north this evening as a dry cold front moves offshore, with winds gusting up around 25 to 30 kts. Seas will build from present 2 to 3 ft range to 4 to 7 ft tonight with the highest seas present around 20 nm out. Winds and seas will diminish Saturday as the high pressure moves overhead. SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... As of 300 PM Friday...Chilly and dry high pressure over Cape Fear Sat night will shift slowly off the Carolina coast by Monday. This will allow northerly winds up to 15 kts Sun aftn to veer and lighten through Sun night down to 10 kts or less out of the E-NE. An added push from high building from the north may cause a spike in northerly winds Sun aftn. This could kick the sea up to 3 to 4 ft Sun aftn, but otherwise seas will be 3 ft or less into early next week. ONG TERM /MONDAY AND TUESDAY/... As of 333 AM Friday...A gradually increase return SE-S flow as high pressure navigates east and well offshore. No advisories expected this period but SSE gusts to 20 KT possible Tuesday afternoon as the sea breeze cranks up just a bit on top of the moderate synoptic pressure gradient. Seas mainly 2-3 feet this period but by Tuesday night 4-5 feet offshore as long fetch distant points SE wave energy this way. Isolated marine showers possible Tuesday and Tuesday night, any TSTMS confined likely to the Gulf Stream, and light sea mist possible Tuesday night. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...Freeze Warning from midnight tonight to 9 AM EST Saturday for SCZ017-023-024-032-033-039-053-055. NC...Freeze Warning from midnight tonight to 9 AM EST Saturday for NCZ087-096-099-105>110. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST Saturday for AMZ250-252- 254-256. && $$ NEAR TERM...REK/CRM SHORT TERM...RGZ LONG TERM...JDW AVIATION...REK