715 FNUS71 KCTP 221745 FWSCTP Spot Forecast for SGL 235 Unit 1-planning...PA Game Commission National Weather Service State College PA 1245 PM EST Wed Feb 22 2017 Forecast is based on ignition time of 0900 EST on February 23. If conditions become unrepresentative... contact the National Weather Service in State College. .DISCUSSION... Unseasonably mild conditions, with record daytime high temperatures in some locations, will reside across the district today through Friday, as a wavering and nearly stationary frontal boundary stays just to our north. Strengthening low pressure will move northeast across the Upper Great Lakes late Friday into early Saturday. The cold front trailing south from this low will bring showers, and perhaps even a few thunderstorms with gusty winds and small hail during the day Saturday. Gusty west wind of 35 to 45 mph will develop in the wake of the front Saturday into Saturday night. *Note some forecast parameters unavailable after 7PM Thursday. .THURSDAY... Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (65-75 percent). Scattered showers with isolated thunderstorms in the afternoon. LAL.................No Tstms until 1200...then 1-8 strikes until 1300...then 9-15 strikes. Max temperature.....Around 68. Min humidity........57 percent. Wind (20 ft)........Southwest winds 5 to 6 mph. Gusty and erratic winds expected near thunderstorms in the afternoon. Mixing height.......500-1600 ft AGL...increasing to 4100-4900 ft AGL. Transport winds.....Southwest 5 to 13 mph...increasing to 14 to 17 mph in the afternoon. Haines Index........3 to 4...or very low to low potential for large plume dominated fire growth. TIME (EST) 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM Sky (%).........66 62 64 67 69 72 79 82 81 Weather cov..... SCT SCT SCT SCT SCT SCT Weather type.... RW RW RW RW RW RW Tstm cov........ ISO ISO ISO ISO ISO ISO LAL.............1 1 2 2 3 3 3 3 3 Temp............53 57 60 63 65 67 68 67 65 RH..............80 75 69 65 63 59 57 59 60 20 FT wind dir..SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW 20 FT wind spd..4 4 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 20 FT wind gust.5 5 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 Mix hgt (kft)...0.5 0.9 1.6 2.5 3.3 4.2 4.8 4.9 4.1 Transp wind dir.SW S SW SW SW SW SW SW SW Transp wind spd.5 6 9 13 16 17 16 15 14 Haines index....3 3 3 3 3 3 4 4 4 .THURSDAY NIGHT... Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (80-90 percent). Isolated thunderstorms early in the evening. Scattered showers. LAL.................1-8 strikes until 1900...then No Tstms until 2000. Min temperature.....Around 51. Max humidity........89 percent. Wind (20 ft)........South winds around 6 mph. Gusty and erratic winds expected near thunderstorms early in the evening. Mixing height.......1300-2800 ft AGL early in the evening. Transport winds.....Southwest 10 to 13 mph early in the evening. Haines Index........4...or low potential for large plume dominated fire growth early in the evening. TIME (EST) 6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM Sky (%).........81 81 82 86 88 88 89 89 89 89 89 87 Weather cov.....SCT CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC Weather type....RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW Tstm cov........ISO LAL.............2 1 M M M M M M M M M M Temp............63 61 59 58 57 56 55 55 54 53 53 52 RH..............65 70 75 75 77 80 80 80 83 86 86 89 20 FT wind dir..SW SW SW S S S S S S S S S 20 FT wind spd..5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 20 FT wind gust.15 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 Mix hgt (kft)...2.8 1.3 M M M M M M M M M M Transp wind dir.SW SW M M M M M M M M M M Transp wind spd.13 10 M M M M M M M M M M Haines index....4 4 M M M M M M M M M M .FRIDAY... Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (75-85 percent). A chance of showers early in the morning. LAL................. Max temperature.....Around 68. Min humidity........59 percent. Wind (20 ft)........South winds 6 to 10 mph. Mixing height.......MISSING. Transport winds..... Haines Index........MISSING. TIME (EST) 6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM Sky (%).........81 78 78 78 78 78 78 78 78 78 78 78 Weather cov.....CHC Weather type....RW Tstm cov........ LAL.............M M M M M M M M M M M M Temp............51 52 53 56 59 61 63 65 67 68 67 66 RH..............93 89 89 83 78 72 70 68 63 59 61 63 20 FT wind dir..S S S S S S S S S S S S 20 FT wind spd..5 5 5 5 5 6 6 6 7 7 8 8 20 FT wind gust.10 10 10 10 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 Mix hgt (kft)...M M M M M M M M M M M M Transp wind dir.M M M M M M M M M M M M Transp wind spd.M M M M M M M M M M M M Haines index....M M M M M M M M M M M M $$ Forecaster...WFO-CTP/Gartner Requested by...Brent McNeal Type of request...PRESCRIBED .TAG 1702633.0/CTP .EMAIL bmcneal@pa.gov