155 FXUS65 KLKN 201105 AFDLKN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Elko NV 305 AM PST Mon Feb 20 2017 .SYNOPSIS...Unsettled weather will be around all week long. A steady stream of Pacific moisture will spread across northern Nevada through mid-week. Gusty winds will accompany a cold front as it sags through the state Tuesday, and valley rain will be transitioning to snow. && .SHORT TERM...Today through Wednesday. Radar shows an area of showers exiting Elko County at this time. Generally less than 0.05 inches of rain fell across the county from this wave of moisture and the models were not consistent on this area of showers. A new batch of moisture is pummeling northern California this morning. A Pacific low pressure trough will drop south along the west coast then move inland over California and western Nevada. A very moist flow is expected to impact northern Nevada. The models are in very good agreement with the track of the trough. Today through tonight. A positive tilt trough with central circulation off the Washington/Oregon coast will provide a steady stream of moisture to northern Nevada. Valley rain is expected as snow levels will be above 7000 feet most of the period. The higher mountains could see a foot of snow. High temperatures will range from the 40s to around 50 degrees. Low temperatures will range from the 30s to around 40 degrees. Tuesday through Tuesday night. A cold front will sag south through the LKN CWFA. Snow levels will be dropping and valley rain will be transitioning to snow north to south. There could be a few inches of snow in some spots however models are not quite consistent with when the changeover will occur. Winds Tuesday afternoon will be gusty all across northern and central nevada. Thus a Wind Advisory is in effect for Tuesday afternoon and evening. Wednesday. Cold air will be in place and precipitation will be all snow. Precipitation will be more showery but an inch or two of snow will not be out of the question. .LONG TERM...Wednesday night through Sunday. Models agree there will be numerous weather systems moving across the Silver State. At this time, it appears there will be at least four distinct storms. Each system could provide the area with light to moderate amounts of snow. Confidence is high for the active pattern, but low for potential snow amounts. Daytime highs will be in the 30s and nighttime lows in the teens/twenties. Some isolated areas could dip lower. Due to the model differences, did not make a lot of changes to the grids. The biggest changes were to the temp grids. Temps were dropped by a couple degrees on average to account for the active storm track and cold/cool northerly/northwesterly flow. && .AVIATION...A light area of showers moved across northern NV this morning, but did not cause any aviation issues. Heavier showers will move into northern NV later this morning and persist through the day. MVFR conditions will be possible. Under heavier showers, IFR may briefly occur. KEKO/KWMC will see the greatest chance for impacts, with KELY only seeing -shra. KTPH will see primarily VCHS or some isolated -shra. Gusty southerly winds will also be a problem. All sites with the exception of KEKO will see sustained 15-25 kt winds gusting around 30-35kts. && .HYDROLOGY...The lower stretch of the Humboldt River from Battle Mountain through Winnemucca to the Humboldt-Pershing County line is still in flood. The flood wave will move downstream overnight and Battle Mountain in Lander County should remain in minor flood status through about Tuesday afternoon. Humboldt County will remain in flood status along the Humboldt River for a week or more. Warm temperatures in the region is causing some tributaries to the Humboldt, such as Martin Creek and Rock Creek, to run high from more snowmelt. This new system coming in will be largely rain in the lower elevations, wet snow up high. The rain will enter the streams and the Humboldt channel very quickly, but the snow will hold for a time, with temperatures later in the week only rising into the 30s for highs with single digits and teens for lows. && .LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Wind Advisory from 10 AM to 7 PM PST Tuesday for Humboldt County- Northeastern Nye County-Northern Elko County-Northern Lander County and Northern Eureka County-Northwestern Nye County-Ruby Mountains/East Humboldt Range-South Central Elko County-Southern Lander County and Southern Eureka County-Southwestern Elko County-White Pine County. && $$ 92/94/94