743 FXUS61 KBGM 190842 AFDBGM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Binghamton NY 342 AM EST Sun Feb 19 2017 .SYNOPSIS... A weak cool front will drop south through the region today followed by slightly cooler air. For Monday and Tuesday, high pressure will provide more fair weather and above normal temperatures. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/... Cold front will drop south through the area today bring cooler air along with a few clouds and perhaps some light precipitation. Front drops through in the mid to late afternoon followed by cold air advection. 850mb temperatures drop below zero by late afternoon over NY forecast area. After 00Z, the cold air advection kind of levels off despite the continued northerly flow. Moisture trapped below the shallow inversion will develop clouds, and eventually some light precipitation. Saturated layer is well below the ice crystal layer so result will be drizzle and freezing drizzle into early Monday. Later Monday, drier air will break up the clouds and precipitation. Temperatures will continue above normal...especially over northeast Pennsylvania where the cooler air really never reaches. There will be a considerable differences in high temperatures Monday across the forecast area, at least 10 to 15 degrees F. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... 340 AM EST Update... A broad area of ridging aloft will be present Monday night that will extend from FL northward towards the Mid-West. High pressure at the sfc will be centered over the region as well resulting in mostly clear skies and light and variable winds. The area of high pressure will slowly drift eastward overnight and sfc winds will start to increase over the Finger Lakes region. The uppr lvl ridge is forecast to shift eastward Monday night and as it does so, WAA around 500MB will start to occur, thus expect cirrus clouds to start to push into the region from the SW. A shortwave trough will start to approach the region from the west early Tuesday morning and cause the ridge to break down slightly. This shortwave will be the next wave to impact our area. As this shortwave approaches it will increase WAA at lower-lvls and force return flow across western NY/PA by 12Z Tues morning. This system appears to be stacked, thus it's attendant sfc low is forecast to drift eastward across northern Ontario and push a "weak" frontal boundary across the region late Tuesday afternoon/Tuesday evening. There seems to be discrepancies within model guidance with this system. The ECMWF continues to be the most consistent run to run, thus leaned more towards the trend of the ECMWF. The GFS brings brings the fropa through the region about 6 hours earlier than the ECMWF. Overall, this system seems to be avg on moisture, PWAT values are normal and as the system pushes east PWAT values decrease. Kept pops on the low side as confidence is not great that coverage over the area will be widespread attm and QPF values are overall low. Rain will be the overall precip type with this system as temps will be very warm for this time of year. There is the slight chance that on the tail end of this system that the typical locations in the higher terrain over the Poconos could see a brief period of FZRA, but overall confidence is low attm. Weak high pressure will build over the region on Wed. With the fropa being more so a boundary, with very little CAA, temps are expected to rise into the 50s across the area Wed afternoon. Temps during this period will have a warming trend, with min temps on Tues morning ranging in the low to mid 20s, increasing into the mid to uppr 40s Tues afternoon. Wed temps will start off in the low to uppr 30s, rising into the low to uppr 50s by the afternoon. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... 340 AM EST Update... The extended forecast stats off with deep SW flow aloft over much of the eastern CONUS as a trough starts to move on shore over the west coast. This type of pattern will allow multiple waves aloft to move over the NE resulting in environments conducive for showers to develop over the region. This type of weather pattern will also allow the continuation of well above normal temps over the area. About 20 deg to be exact. Decided to keep chance of precip over the are Wed night through Sat as a fairly active pattern is likely. Temps may start to return closer to normal by Sunday. && .AVIATION /09Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... VFR conditions prevail this morning over the area. This will continue into Sunday other than some dense valley fog possible at ELM. Dry conditions will continue through Sunday despite some cold air advection behind a weak cold front. MVFR ceilings are possible near the end of the period with the northwest flow. OUTLOOK... Monday through Tuesday...Mainly VFR. Tuesday night into Wednesday...Restrictions possible in lower ceilings and light precipitation with cold front. Wednesday night and Thursday...mainly VFR but possible restrictions late with warm front. && .BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...DGM NEAR TERM...BJT/DGM SHORT TERM...KAH LONG TERM...KAH AVIATION...DGM