345 FXUS61 KRLX 152014 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 314 PM EST Wed Feb 15 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Northwest winds to produce light upslope snow tonight. Cool under northwesterly flow aloft tonight through Friday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 220 PM Wednesday... Satellite images show fair weather isolated cu across most of the area, while additional cu and strato cu can be seen moving south into southwest OH and parts of WV early this afternoon and evening. Moderate and gusty winds will become light to moderate tonight. This flow will bring more dry and cool air causing temperatures to drop into the mid 20s. It will remain cool Thursday with below normal temperatures. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... As of 300 PM Wednesday... Generally quiet in the short term with periods of clouds. There is just a small chance for showers late Saturday and Saturday night as upper level impulse crosses. It will be turning much warmer by Saturday with highs running a good 15 to 20 degrees above normal && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 310 PM Wednesday... Clouds will linger Sunday as the upper level wave moves east of the area. Upper level ridging really takes hold Monday and Tuesday before a cool front crosses late Tuesday and Tuesday night. Temperatures will continue to be very mild with highs Monday running 20 to 25 degrees above normal. && .AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 120 PM Wednesday... With dry FROPA almost along the eastern mountains, northwest flow behind it will continue to bring cooler and drier conditions to the area through the period. The exception will be at EKN and the northeast mountains where lingering moisture and northwest winds will produce upslope snow there through tonight to create MVFR/IFR conditions. Otherwise, IFR conditions will prevail through the period. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Ceilings could vary in wrap around moisture overnight. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 EST 1HRLY 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H L M M HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H M L EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H M M L L L PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H M H H L H M CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H M H H L AFTER 18Z THURSDAY... No widespread IFR expected. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ARJ/30 NEAR TERM...ARJ SHORT TERM...30 LONG TERM...30 AVIATION...ARJ