965 FXUS61 KBGM 130909 AFDBGM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Binghamton NY 409 AM EST Mon Feb 13 2017 .SYNOPSIS... An area of low pressure system will deepen off the New England coast overnight into Monday with snow continuing through central New York and gusty northwest winds developing areawide. The strong winds may produce near white out conditions in Central New York and possibly a few power outages in the region, especially in the Poconos to Catskills. Another system will impact the region by the middle of the week with additional snowfall. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/... 4 AM Update... Back side of winter storm will feature gusty winds areawide, and lingering snow-blowing snow especially in Central NY. Wind gusts were increased in the forecast areawide through the coming morning. Winds have already achieved gusts higher than expected with cold air advection, including 48 mph in Solvay, 46 mph in Cherry Valley and Ithaca, and 45 mph in Penn Yan. Hazleton and Scranton have also each reached 40 mph. Wind Advisory now in effect for Northeast PA to Sullivan-Delaware-Otsego Counties NY in coordination with NWS Albany, since strong gusts are expected in the higher elevations of the Catskills. Winds will be strongest in the advisory area, with gusts 45-50 mph causing scattered power outages especially where ice and/or wet snow collected on trees in Poconos-Catskills. That being said, the widespread 35-45 mph across most of the region will probably result in at least sporadic outages in much of Central New York due to combined effects of gusts and weight of earlier wet snow-ice. Merging of northern and southern streams is occurring with rapidly deepening low offshore of New England, and upper low/wave is swinging through our region. Banded snow showers have spread in northwest to southeast across most of the area, especially Central New York. Synoptic wraparound moisture is also picking up lake enhancement off of Lake Ontario and even a little bit of Georgian Bay moisture into western NY. Additional snow accumulations actually will not be terribly heavy; about 2-5 inches in the higher terrain of Central NY and 1-3 inches elsewhere. The earlier snow was quite dense in terms of snow-to-liquid water ratios. However, new snow will be much fluffier in texture with higher snow-to-liquid ratios, and the strong gusty winds will cause significant blowing and drifting of that newfallen snow especially in Central New York. Near whiteout conditions could occur at times. Winter Storm Warning continues through 1pm for most of Central New York, while Advisory continues to 7am for Central Southern Tier NY and Bradford-Susquehanna-Wayne Counties in PA. Will continue to let these ride due to combined snow- blowing snow concerns. Moisture will quickly become shallow this afternoon into evening, diminishing remaining snow showers to scattered flurries, mainly in Central New York with nominal additional fluffy accumulation. Winds will also gradually diminish through the afternoon and especially into evening as the pressure gradient relaxes with incoming surface ridge. Temperatures will be stuck in 20s-near 30 today, then drop to mid teens-lower 20s tonight. Good amount of clouds are figured to be trapped under subsidence inversion of surface ridge, but if any larger holes materialize, radiational cooling coupled with fresh layer of snow could allow temperatures at some spots to plummet more. Southwest winds on backside of ridge will get warm air advection going, allowing highs into the 30s across the region including upper 30s in lower elevations of Finger Lakes-Central Twin Tiers-Northeast PA. The sky will vary from mostly cloudy north to at least partly sunny south Tuesday. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... Low pressure will track north of the region Tuesday night into Wednesday dragging a cold front eastward across the area. This will bring the area some snow showers and flurries by later Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. By later Wednesday and Wednesday night, the upper trough/low will be centered just east of the area with a coastal storm developing east of New England and tracking north toward the Canadian Maritimes. The result as far as sensible weather across the area will be continuing snow showers and flurries across the area due to the broad circulation around the system coupled with enhancement from the Lake. Since winds will be shifting and 850 mb temps will not be especially cold (-8 to -10 C), lake effect/enhancement does not look to be especially impressive during this period. Over the course of this period, generally expect the potential for 1 to 3 inches of snow for most of central NY with less than an inch in PA. Northern counties in central NY along and north of I-90 could see higher amounts on the order of several inches. During this period, generally expect lows in the 20s and highs Wednesday in the low to mid 30s which will tend to limit snow accumulation during the day. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... For Thursday and Thursday night, 850 mb temperatures down to -14C to -16C with a 300 flow will continue lake effect snows. There is uncertainty this far out but it could be a decent set-up for significant lake effect snows down the Thruway corridor and even down to Cortland-Norwich-Cooperstown. This lake effect snow will die down Friday morning with strong synoptic scale subsidence. Later on Friday to Saturday high pressure aloft will build in and there will be a moderating trend. By Sunday, southwest low-level winds will lead to much milder weather entering the area. && .AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Gusty northwest winds are developing on back side of winter storm, which along with snow showers will cause visibility restrictions from combined snow-blowing snow. KSYR-KRME-KITH-KBGM will experience conditions fluctuating at times below alternate minimums for much of the morning hours. KELM-KAVP will also have at least fuel alternate required ceilings for at least the early morning hours, along with snow showers initially that will briefly drop visibility to IFR. Fuel alt ceilings and occasional snow- blowing snow will continue much of the day for KSYR-KRME-KITH-KBGM but overall trend will be for ceilings to improve with time as drier Arctic air overspreads the region. VFR conditions should find their way into KAVP-KELM this afternoon. WNW to NW winds will increase to 16-22 knots with gusts 28-36 knots through early afternoon, then diminishing mid afternoon to especially evening. OUTLOOK... Tuesday...VFR except for lingering ceiling restrictions in early morning hours for KSYR-KRME-KBGM and perhaps KITH. Tuesday night through Thursday night...Occasional restrictions in snow showers, especially the NY terminals. Friday...VFR. && .BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...Winter Weather Advisory until 7 AM EST this morning for PAZ038>040-072. Wind Advisory until 6 PM EST this evening for PAZ038>040-043- 044-047-048-072. NY...Winter Storm Warning until 1 PM EST this afternoon for NYZ009- 016>018-025-036-037-044>046-055>057-062. Winter Weather Advisory until 7 AM EST this morning for NYZ015- 022>024. Wind Advisory until 6 PM EST this evening for NYZ046-057-062. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MDP NEAR TERM...MDP SHORT TERM...PCF LONG TERM...DJN AVIATION...MDP