046 FXUS62 KTBW 111907 AFDTBW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL 207 PM EST Sat Feb 11 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Aloft - A low was over central CA while a short wave trough extended from central Canada to the northern high plains. A ridge from northeast Mexico to north of the Great Lakes dominated most of the eastern states. Surface - A front stretched from the upper midwest through the Great Lakes region to New England coastal waters. Low pressure was over the central plains. High pressure centered in the Atlantic near 30 North/70 West ridged across the southeast U.S. to the western Gulf of Mexico. && .SHORT TERM (Rest of today - Sunday)... The CA upper low slides along the coast to Baja California while the short wave trough moves to the Great Lakes. In response the ridge shifts out over the Gulf of Mexico and initially flattens but builds back toward the Rockies late in the period. The surface low moves through the Ohio Valley to southern New England...dragging a cold front that settles into the Deep South and western Gulf coast. The surface ridge remains along 70 west but slips down to between 25 and 30 north...and continuing to extend across FL and much of the Gulf. The upper ridge dominates with a stable and generally dry air mass... model PWAT ranges around 3/4 of an inch or so...with a slight increase late Sun. Skies remain clear with some high clouds Sun. However there will be enough low level moisture...along with the clear skies allowing good radiational cooling and light winds as the surface ridge axis sags to the area...for late night fog. This will be mainly patchy but with areas in the north. .MID TERM/LONG TERM (Sunday Night-Saturday)... Early in the week models continue to move a mid/upper level trough across the eastern U.S. and out into the Atlantic Ocean with an associated weakening surface cold front moving into the region Monday and washing out across the southern Florida peninsula Tuesday. This boundary will bring mainly just some additional clouds as the atmosphere will remain rather dry, but cannot rule out a couple of light showers/sprinkles. During midweek a cutoff low over the southwest U.S. and northern Mexico will open up and move east becoming absorbed into a developing trough over the eastern states. This will develop a surface low over the Lower Mississippi Valley that will track east northeast across the southeast U.S. dragging a cold front across the region. Models are beginning to come more in line and in general bring clouds and a chance of showers to the region Wednesday into early Thursday followed by clearing and cooler drier air to end the week as high pressure settles over the southeast states. Temperatures will be a few degrees above normal through midweek then cool back below normal for Thursday into Friday before returning to near normal next weekend. && .AVIATION... 11/18Z-12/18Z. Prevailing VFR TIL 06Z when BR begins at LAL and PGD then spreads to the rest of the terminals by 08-09Z and continues TIL 14Z...with MVFR VSBY. S to SW winds through the afternoon then light and mainly variable over night. && .MARINE... Benign winds and seas through much of the period. There may be some patchy sea fog near the coast tonight north of Tarpon Springs. Conditions may be more condusive for sea fog Sun night over a wider area but will refrain from including in the forecast for now. A weak front pushes through Mon- Tue with little impact...then a more robust front arrives late in the week. && .FIRE WEATHER... Isolated locations are currently near or below 35 percent but both winds and ERC values are low. Relative humidities begin to increase Sun then stay well above critical levels until the end of the week...in the wake of an expected cold front. && .Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs... TPA 60 76 62 77 / 0 0 10 10 FMY 58 82 60 80 / 0 0 0 0 GIF 57 82 59 78 / 0 0 10 10 SRQ 56 76 59 77 / 0 0 10 10 BKV 49 79 56 78 / 10 0 10 10 SPG 61 76 62 75 / 0 0 10 10 && .TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. Gulf waters...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...09/Rude MID TERM/LONG TERM...69/Close