264 FXUS62 KTBW 010905 AFDTBW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL 405 AM EST Wed Feb 1 2017 .UPDATE... As observed visibilities continue to fall over portions of Levy and Citrus counties, opted to issue a dense fog advisory through the morning hours. The combination of calm winds will continue to favor radiational cooling, leading to saturation of the shallow moist air near the surface. This will promote areas of fog with dense fog likely to linger into the mid morning hours. Slow down as you head out this morning. Much of northern Florida will have the potential for dense fog. && .Prev Discussion... /issued 306 AM EST Wed Feb 1 2017/ SHORT TERM (Today and Thursday)... Broad upper ridging extends from the eastern Pacific into the Baja and northern Mexico, overspreading much of the southwestern U.S. Over the remainder of the country, broad cyclonic flow continues, with several shortwave impulses moving through the fast mid level west/northwest flow. This flow becomes more or less zonal over the Gulf of Mexico, with an elongated surface ridge axis stretched out from the central Atlantic Ocean into the central Gulf of Mexico. For today, expect slightly warmer conditions that we saw yesterday. Surface high pressure will dominate the region with light east/southeast winds shifting to the west near the coast with the seabreeze. A few high clouds may stream over the region ahead of a weak upstream shortwave over Mexico. Decent radiational cooling in the midst of a fairly dry airmass will allow for widespread morning lows in the 40s with a few spots in the upper 30s possible north of I-4. This may allow for some patchy fog to develop mainly in low lying areas. Temperatures will rise quickly today with highs reaching the mid 70s. For Thursday, as the general weather pattern will remain mostly unchanged, expect conditions to be similar to today. As low level easterlies allow for gradual airmass modification, temperatures will rise just a few degrees, with lows mainly in the 50s, and highs in the mid to upper 70s. A few areas of southwest Florida may rise into the 80s. A weak shortwave trough over the Gulf of Mexico may lead to more widespread mid and high cloud cover during the day. MID/LONG TERM (Thursday Night through Wednesday)... Fairly quiet weather expected in the middle to long range period of the forecast. Zonal flow aloft throughout much of the CONUS will keep any weather systems well away from Florida. High pressure will be the predominant feature throughout much of the extended period. Temperatures will run about 5 or so degrees above climatic norms with mostly sunny skies expected each day. Late in the period models are hinting at the development of a deep upper-level trough across the eastern U.S. so will see how that plays out over future model runs. AVIATION (06z TAFs)... VFR conditions to prevail through much of the period. Patchy fog reduce vsbys at more fog-prone terminals. Light and variable winds will become southeasterly during the late morning, eventually shifting to the south and southwest as the seabreeze develops. Winds will become variable again by 00z Thurs. MARINE... High pressure will linger over the waters for the next few days with light east/southeast winds shifting onshore each afternoon with the seabreeze. A weak front will bring high pressure in north of the waters over the weekend, which may allow the gradient to tighten across the waters, with breezy east winds. Still winds look to remain below headline criteria. Winds will gradually shift around to the southeast ahead of a front early next week, allowing moisture to return with an increasing potential for marine fog. FIRE WEATHER... Despite warm temperatures and humidities below 35 percent in a few areas today and tomorrow, ERCs and winds will remain low for red flag conditions. From the weekend into next week, easterly winds will allow for gradually increasing moisture and humidities each day, preventing any fire weather concerns. && .Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs... TPA 72 55 75 59 / 0 0 0 0 FMY 78 56 80 59 / 0 0 0 0 GIF 76 52 79 56 / 0 0 0 0 SRQ 72 54 74 57 / 0 0 0 0 BKV 75 46 78 50 / 0 0 0 0 SPG 71 58 74 60 / 0 0 0 0 && .TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM EST this morning for Coastal Citrus-Coastal Levy-Inland Citrus-Inland Levy. Gulf waters...None. && $$ UPDATE/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...84/Austin DECISION SUPPORT...11/McKaughan