386 FXUS62 KTAE 281441 AFDTAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tallahassee FL 941 AM EST Sat Jan 28 2017 .NEAR TERM [Through Today]... A few light returns are showing up on regional radars across the northern Gulf of Mexico but the low levels are fairly dry per 12Z TAE RAOB. Therefore, will take a while for any measurable precipitation to fall and will mainly be confined to the Gulf waters beginning later this afternoon. Will be a mostly cloudy day with plenty of clouds advecting in from the west. Highs will be in the 50s. && .PREV DISCUSSION [609 AM EST]... .SHORT TERM [Tonight Through Monday]... After the short wave trough merges into the long wave trough today as discussed above, the trough will deamplify as it moves eastward to the Atlantic coastline by Monday. Offshore showers from this afternoon will move onshore tonight, but are expected to mostly effect the coastal Big Bend, and largely the southeastern portion. Skies will clear out quickly Sunday behind the front and temperatures will warm to the upper 50s to low 60s. The cooler airmass will push in Sunday night, with lows in the 30s and highs in the mid to upper 50s on Monday. .LONG TERM [Monday Night Through Saturday]... A series of short wave troughs will swing through the upper level pattern through the next week, though they are expected to remain well to our north, keeping weak troughing in place aloft of the eastern CONUS through the period. Chances for rain will be negligible, highs will be in the mid 60s to around 70 and lows will be mostly in the 40s, save for a cool Tuesday morning with lows in the 30s. .AVIATION [Through 12Z Sunday]... VFR conditions with W-NW winds of 5 to 10 knots are expected through the period. High level cigs ranging from 10k to 25k ft AGL are likely. Areas of -RA will develop across the Gulf coastal waters and north FL late today through early Sunday, but is likely to remain just south of KTLH, KECP, and KVLD.| .MARINE... Small craft advisory conditions will develop Sunday behind tonight's frontal passage with west winds sustained around 20 knots and seas rising to 6 to 8 feet by Sunday night. Conditions should subside Monday and remain low through the rest of the period under the influence of high pressure. .FIRE WEATHER... Relatively strong transport winds will drive dispersion values above 75 Sunday afternoon. RH values may briefly drop to or near locally critical levels this afternoon, but conditions will not meet Red Flag warning criteria. .HYDROLOGY... Areas in flood stage along the Choctawhatchee, Ochlockonee, and Withlacoochee have crested and begun to fall. Rainfall today and tonight should be mostly along the coastline and not add water to the rivers that remain in flood stage. Over the next week, no additional rainfall is forecast, which should allow for rivers to continue to lower to normal levels. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Tallahassee 56 40 61 37 59 / 0 10 0 0 0 Panama City 54 46 59 43 57 / 0 0 0 0 0 Dothan 54 36 58 35 56 / 0 0 0 0 0 Albany 54 37 58 35 56 / 0 0 0 0 0 Valdosta 55 39 59 36 56 / 0 10 0 0 0 Cross City 55 42 60 38 59 / 0 50 20 0 0 Apalachicola 55 45 61 42 58 / 0 20 0 0 0 && .TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GA...None. AL...None. GM...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...Scholl SHORT TERM...Moore LONG TERM...Moore AVIATION...Fournier MARINE...Moore FIRE WEATHER...Fournier HYDROLOGY...Moore