769 FXUS61 KRLX 281114 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 614 AM EST Sat Jan 28 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Cold northwest flow brings snow showers through early next week with occasional breaks in the shower activity. Cold pattern continues next week with occasional systems providing precipitation. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 610 AM Saturday... Forecast on track. Back edge of the stratus eroding nicely as the low level thermal trof passes. Expect some sunshine this morning across northeast KY/southwest VA/southern WV....perhaps up into central WV before clouds fill back in as low level CAA commences. Winds will remain gusty with some good mixing ahead of the next disturbance upstream. As of 1255 AM Saturday... Scattered snow showers will continue into the predawn...after which will quickly diminish from west to east with passage of the low level thermal trof. Some brief clearing is expected across northeast KY/southwest VA/southern WV....perhaps up into central WV before clouds fill back in as low level CAA commences once again. Snow showers will develop across the area...most notably across the mountains this evening as a weak s/w trof passes thru. A more significant disturbance will approach by Sunday morning, increasing the coverage of snow showers across the area. Accumulations in the near term will primarily be confined to the high terrain aside from some skiffs here or there in the Lowlands early this morning and once again tonight. I have a general 1 to 3 inches coded up in the mountains for tonight. Temps should spike either side of 40 degrees across areas that see some clearing this morning before CAA and clouds halt the rise. Elsewhere 30s will be the rule with some 20s in the high terrain. Temps will drop back below freezing all places tonight. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... As of 255 AM Saturday... An upper level trough will move over the area Sunday and Sunday night. This should produce snow across the area, with accumulations ranging from 1 to 3 inches. Have increased pops with this features. Cold air advection behind the trough should create decent upslope snow conditions for Monday morning. Flow will turn later Monday as a warm front moves through Monday night. This will be quickly followed by a cold front on Tuesday. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 1255 AM Saturday... Cold pattern remains through the period with occasional waves producing some precipitation, but no big systems. In a rather fast flow, confidence in the timing of individual waves remains low. && .AVIATION /11Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 615 AM Saturday... As the low level thermal trof passes this morning cigs will improve with even some clearing expected for a time in before filling back in with some mid deck. Winds will become gusty ahead of another disturbance slated to cross tonight. Cigs will gradually lower back into MVFR from west to east this evening with shsn developing especially across the high terrain. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing the improving cigs this morning may vary an hour or two. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE SAT 01/28/17 UTC 1HRLY 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 EST 1HRLY 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 CRW CONSISTENCY M L H H H M H H H H M M HTS CONSISTENCY H H H M M H H H H H M M BKW CONSISTENCY H M L H H H H H H H M M EKN CONSISTENCY L M L L L H H H H H M M PKB CONSISTENCY L H H H H M M H H H M M CKB CONSISTENCY L M M H L L L L M L M M AFTER 12Z SUNDAY... Intermittent IFR possible in snow showers Sunday and into Monday. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...RPY/30 NEAR TERM...30 SHORT TERM...RPY LONG TERM...RPY AVIATION...30