582 FXUS62 KTAE 221121 AFDTAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tallahassee FL 621 AM EST Sun Jan 22 2017 .AVIATION [Through 12Z Monday]... Scattered showers and storms will develop this morning ahead of a cold front and potential squall line to move from west to east across the area this afternoon. Low pressure will develop across the northern Gulf coast, deepen rapidly, and move northeast towards northern Georgia this evening. Low level wind fields will strengthen today with windy conditions by the afternoon gusts to 35 knots possible. Severe weather is possible through the day with large hail, damaging winds, and tornadoes possible. Cold front should clear the area by this evening with breezy conditions continuing overnight. && .PREV DISCUSSION [334 AM EST]... .NEAR TERM [Through Today]... A brief lull in the showers and thunderstorms is expected in the predawn hours as the current MCS shifts northeastward. Attention turns back west towards the upper trough which will move across the ARKLATEX into MS/AL by late today. This will induce surface cyclogenesis across southern MS with a surface low deepening rapidly and moving northeast. Large scale ascent will increase with showers and storms increasing in coverage and intensity this morning in the warm sector and also along the westward moving cold front progged to enter western fL panhandle and SE AL by midday. All modes of severe weather is possible until the cold front moves through. SPC has atleast an enhanced risk of severe weather across all Tri-State counties today with a MODERATE RISK for severe weather across SW GA and FL Big Bend counties. Again, all modes of severe weather is possible including a strong tornado or two. Severe threat will decrease from west to east later this afternoon as the cold front moves through and mid level dry air advects in. The surface wind field strengthens today as the aforementioned surface low pressure deepens. Although models differ on placement on stronger winds today, most agree that wind advisory criteria will be met across portions of the Tri-State region this afternoon. Therefore, have issued a wind advisory for this afternoon. .SHORT TERM [Tonight Through Tuesday]... Wrap around moisture from the upper trough itself will keep slight chances of rainfall in the forecast through Monday morning. Nothing severe, just light showers as this feature moves away from the area. Monday afternoon through Tuesday are dry with high pressure building in. Highs in the 60s with lows in the 40s to lower 50s. .LONG TERM [Tuesday Night Through Sunday]... Tranquil weather is anticipated through Wednesday at which time another cold front will swing through Wednesday night and Thursday. Colder air will accompany this system with highs Friday and into the weekend in the 50s with lows in the 30s and approaching freezing across SE AL and SW GA. .MARINE... A gale warning has been hoisted for all coastal water zones beginning this afternoon through midday monday. Conditions will continue to deteriorate as winds increase in response to developing low pressure across the southeast united states. Conditions appear to improve beginning Tuesday. .FIRE WEATHER... Other than high dispersions later this afternoon, no fire weather concerns. .HYDROLOGY... Another round of precipitation is expected today. 1-2 inches of rainfall is possible with locally higher amounts before rainfall generally ends this evening. Where areas received heavy rainfall last night, rivers are responding with the Choctawhatchee River at Newton forecasted to reach flood stage today. Other area rivers will need to be watched today and tonight. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Tallahassee 74 52 65 42 67 / 90 30 10 0 0 Panama City 71 56 63 47 63 / 90 30 10 0 0 Dothan 72 50 61 41 65 / 90 30 10 0 0 Albany 73 51 63 41 65 / 90 30 20 0 0 Valdosta 74 51 64 42 65 / 90 30 10 0 0 Cross City 75 55 65 43 66 / 80 50 10 0 0 Apalachicola 72 56 65 47 64 / 90 40 10 0 0 && .TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...Wind Advisory from noon EST /11 AM CST/ today to 6 PM EST /5 PM CST/ this evening for Calhoun-Central Walton-Coastal Bay- Coastal Dixie-Coastal Franklin-Coastal Gulf-Coastal Jefferson-Coastal Taylor-Coastal Wakulla-Gadsden-Holmes- Inland Bay-Inland Dixie-Inland Franklin-Inland Gulf-Inland Jefferson-Inland Taylor-Inland Wakulla-Jackson-Lafayette- Leon-Liberty-Madison-North Walton-South Walton-Washington. High Rip Current Risk through late Monday night for Coastal Bay- Coastal Franklin-Coastal Gulf-South Walton. High Surf Advisory until 1 AM EST /midnight CST/ Tuesday for Coastal Bay-Coastal Gulf-South Walton. GA...Wind Advisory from noon today to 6 PM EST this evening for Baker- Ben Hill-Berrien-Brooks-Calhoun-Clay-Colquitt-Cook-Decatur- Dougherty-Early-Grady-Irwin-Lanier-Lee-Lowndes-Miller- Mitchell-Quitman-Randolph-Seminole-Terrell-Thomas-Tift- Turner-Worth. AL...Wind Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 5 PM CST this afternoon for Coffee-Dale-Geneva-Henry-Houston. GM...Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EST this afternoon for Apalachee Bay or Coastal Waters From Keaton Beach to Ochlockonee River Fl out to 20 Nm-Coastal Waters From Ochlockonee River to Apalachicola Fl out to 20 Nm-Coastal waters from Suwannee River to Keaton Beach out 20 NM-Coastal waters from Apalachicola to Destin FL out 20 NM-Waters from Suwannee River to Apalachicola FL from 20 to 60 NM-Waters from Apalachicola to Destin FL from 20 to 60 NM. Gale Warning from 1 PM this afternoon to 1 PM EST Monday for Apalachee Bay or Coastal Waters From Keaton Beach to Ochlockonee River Fl out to 20 Nm-Coastal Waters From Ochlockonee River to Apalachicola Fl out to 20 Nm-Coastal waters from Suwannee River to Keaton Beach out 20 NM- Coastal waters from Apalachicola to Destin FL out 20 NM- Waters from Suwannee River to Apalachicola FL from 20 to 60 NM-Waters from Apalachicola to Destin FL from 20 to 60 NM. && $$ NEAR TERM...Scholl SHORT TERM...Scholl LONG TERM...Scholl AVIATION...Scholl MARINE...Scholl FIRE WEATHER...Scholl HYDROLOGY...Scholl