588 FXUS62 KTAE 200733 AFDTAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tallahassee FL 233 AM EST Fri Jan 20 2017 .NEAR TERM [Through Today]... Line of showers and embedded thunderstorms continues to move across the region at this hour. The current meso-scale analysis shows a sharp gradient of instability along the Florida Panhandle coast, with generally 500-1000 J/KG of CAPE remaining off-shore. The latest convective trends over the past hour continue to suggest that the strongest storms will be confined to coastal waters and along the shoreline over the next several hours. The latest CAM guidance continues to suggest a weakening trend with this line over the next several hours, with dry mid-level air intruding from the west and inhibition increasing across the eastern half of the area. The mid-level trough responsible for these showers and storms will continue to lift northeastward across the Tennessee and Ohio Valleys during the late morning and afternoon hours. Scattered shower and thunderstorm development is expected, mainly during the afternoon hours, as a result of continued low-level and surface southerly flow and weak isentropic lift across the region. This activity is expected to wane during the evening hours. Despite mostly cloudy skies today, highs will generally run in the mid to upper 70s across the region. .SHORT TERM [Tonight Through Sunday]... **The main story in the short term remains the possibility of severe weather, with all facets of severe weather threats, for Saturday through Sunday afternoon.** Shortwave ridging will move by and off to the east Friday night in response to the deepening longwave trough across the central CONUS with a shortwave trough lifting northeastward across the upper Midwest. Low level warm air advection, along with convergence from the strengthening low level jet and increasing vorticity advection, will spark an increase in showers and storms Friday night across the northern Gulf coast and spreading inland and eastward as a warm front moves inland Saturday. Initially, CAPE and Shear across the area are low Saturday morning but begin to ramp up beginning late morning. This is when our window of opportunity opens up for severe weather. Day 2 SPC convective outlook has most of our area in a slight risk for severe weather. Again, all facets of severe weather are possible. Closed upper low develops Saturday night across the TX/OK panhandles and moves eastward to northern Mississippi Sunday afternoon and into the Carolinas Sunday night. Although instability decreases through the evening and overnight, strong wind fields will lead to an increase in shear and helicity values. Large scale lift will increase as well as the closed low gets closer with diffluence aloft. Still expecting a squall line of sorts to move across much of the CWA with damaging winds and isolated tornadoes possible. That threat will linger into Sunday across the eastern and southeastern half of the CWA before dry slotting decreases rain chances from west to east later Sunday into Sunday night. Day 3 SPC convective outlook has our area in an enhanced area for severe weather mainly east of Mexico Beach to Marianna FL to Albany GA. Slight risk remains west of this line. .LONG TERM [Sunday Night Through Friday]... Light rain may linger into Monday on the backside of the departing low pressure system. A cold front will swing through Monday which will knock our temperatures down to near seasonal averages. Slightly warmer temperatures expected Wednesday as surface high pressure moves by but a fast moving cold front will bring another chance for rain beginning Wednesday night. && .AVIATION [Through 06Z Saturday]... Widespread area of RA continues to move eastward across the region, with RA expected to clear at DHN and ECP within the next few hours. All other TAF sites will see RA prior to daybreak. TLH and VLD are currently seeing the development of low CIGS and fog respectively at this hour, with these conditions expected to persist until RA moves through later tonight. Low CIGS are expected and areas of fog may redevelop as showers clear the area from west to east through daybreak. VFR conditions to resume by late morning. && .MARINE... As the next low pressure system arrives Sunday, winds ahead of this system will increase in response. Cautionary winds will develop tonight with advisory winds by early Saturday. As the cold front moves through the coastal waters Sunday, a further increase in winds are possible. Gale force gusts are possible late Sunday through Monday. Seas will climb to near 15 feet in response to these strong winds across the far offshore waters. Winds will fall below advisory level by Tuesday morning. && .FIRE WEATHER... No concerns. && .HYDROLOGY... On average, 2-4 inches of rainfall is expected through Sunday night across the area with isolated amounts approaching 6 inches. These amounts will most likely fall over a long enough period that flash flooding wont be a concern. Across area rivers, with these expected rainfall amounts, rivers are expected to stay below flood stage. There are a few rivers to keep an eye on however, such as the Kinchafoonee Creek or Choctawhatchee River. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Tallahassee 77 64 74 64 75 / 40 50 80 80 70 Panama City 73 67 73 66 71 / 40 60 80 80 70 Dothan 76 63 74 61 71 / 40 60 90 80 70 Albany 77 63 74 62 73 / 50 50 90 80 80 Valdosta 77 63 75 64 75 / 30 40 80 80 80 Cross City 77 63 76 65 75 / 20 30 80 80 80 Apalachicola 73 67 73 67 73 / 30 50 80 80 70 && .TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GA...None. AL...None. GM...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...Pullin SHORT TERM...Scholl LONG TERM...Scholl AVIATION...Pullin MARINE...Scholl FIRE WEATHER...Pullin HYDROLOGY...Scholl