888 FXUS65 KABQ 200553 AFDABQ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Albuquerque NM 1053 PM MST Thu Jan 19 2017 .AVIATION... 06Z TAF CYCLE Changes with the 06Z package focused mainly on timing of precipitation and ceilings over the western TAF locations and winds over the eastern sites. KFMN and KGUP will continue to see precipitation through 12-14Z with KGUP seeing a return of showers in the 18Z time frame. Both locations will continue to bounce between MVFR and occasionally IFR in heavier periods of precipitation. Current trends and guidance have reduced the confidence of precipitation at KABQ/KAEG/KSAF, thus VCSH is included at AEG/ABQ with snow showers at SAF dropping conditions to MVFR in the 13-16Z time frame. East of the Central Mountains, little changes were done in the near term with all locations expected to remain VFR but with strong and gusty winds developing overnight and persisting through the 00-03Z time frame. 54/Fontenot && .PREV DISCUSSION...316 PM MST Thu Jan 19 2017... .SYNOPSIS... A short-lived ridge of high pressure aloft quickly moved across New Mexico today, but unsettled weather is quickly taking shape upstream to the west. A one-two punch of wintry weather will impact central to western sections of New Mexico tonight through Saturday with the weather pattern remaining unsettled into next week as well. The first upper level disturbance will arrive this evening through early Friday, bringing some precipitation to central and western New Mexico with more significant precipitation then expected Friday night into Saturday as the second disturbance arrives. Cooler temperatures, accumulating mountain snow, and a mix of rain and snow in the central and western valleys are expected through this time. Strong winds will also accompany this pair of upper level disturbances with the higher terrain and eastern plains observing the strongest gusts. && .DISCUSSION... A tricky forecast is in the works for the next 48 hours as a pair of upper level perturbations take aim at New Mexico. A short wave ridge has raced across NM, and the first upstream trough can be seen digging into AZ and the greater intermountain west. This feature is already drawing in a healthy swath of Pacific moisture and forcing with stratiform precipitation expanding over eastern AZ and now invading western NM. Precipitation is expected to slowly change from a rain or rain/snow mix to mostly snow in the mid slope and valley locations this evening with a few inches of snow accumulation projected over the higher peaks above 8000 feet in the western half of NM. Given that the next system (late Friday through Saturday) will pack more of a punch with more impacts, have opted not to hoist a winter weather advisory for any zones tonight, but rather will put the focus on late tomorrow through Saturday with the previously issued winter storm watch. That being said, some travel impacts from snow are possible near the continental divide on I-40 and US 550 tonight into early Friday morning. A lull in precipitation will grace many locales Friday, but it will be fairly brief-lived with a second round starting in the afternoon as the next Pacific trough moves inland over the western states. Thus, within any given zone of the forecast area, overall clouds and precipitation coverage will vary throughout the day on Friday with temperatures running 5 to 10 degrees cooler than today. Snow will begin to turn more steady over the higher terrain of western and central NM with higher snowfall rates by the late afternoon. Moisture and precipitation will blossom even more over central to western NM Friday night as the second trough aloft propagates over AZ, driving healthy upper level dynamics into NM. Forecast models all remain fairly bullish with QPF amounts over the Gila and Mogollon rim Saturday morning, and some hefty snow totals of a foot or more could easily be reached on the higher peaks of southern Catron county. Secondarily, the Sacramento mountains also look to get into the action with several inches to a foot or more of accumulation, and many other peaks of central to western NM will also likely observe several inches. The other concern will be blowing snow that will further reduce visibilities and exaggerate snow and travel impacts in the higher terrain, as wind gusts of 50 to 60 mph are projected for many high terrain zones. Much of the eastern plains will escape without precipitation due to downsloping effects, but the winds will still buffet these areas Friday and Saturday, especially south of the Interstate 40 corridor. By late Saturday, the trough will have deepened into a low, exiting into west TX around sunset. Precipitation will steadily wane from west to east with orographics slowly fading Saturday night. The drier northwest flow will yield colder overnight temperatures, but not too far from late January averages. Yet again, the break from precipitation will be a short-lived one on Sunday as the flow aloft is expected to quickly turn more diffluent by late afternoon. This will begin spreading additional batches of rain and high elevation snow into the northwestern zones before dusk Sunday evening. Precipitation will then progressively expand and intensify into Sunday night and Monday and Monday night once the trough crosses the Land of Enchantment. Several inches of new snow accumulation appear within the realm of possibilities for this tertiary storm while temperatures remain capped and unable to surpass normalcy. 52 && .FIRE WEATHER... The short lived upper level ridge over the state is currently weakening as the first Pacific wave crosses into southern NV. Abundant mid to upper level moisture will surge in from the west increasing cloud cover and wetting precipitation north and west tonight. Meanwhile, gusty winds will continue across the eastern plains overnight with above normal lows, excellent RH recoveries and good/fair vent rates south of the I-40 corridor. The first Pacific wave will impact the state tonight through Fri with persistent wetting precipitation...mainly in the form of snow/low elevation rain favoring areas west of the central mtn chain. Snowfall accumulations will be moderate to heavy at times with the incoming waves. Vent rates will improve area wide because of an upper level jet crossing central NM helping to raise mixing heights 6500 to 7500ft. With that being said, surface winds will increase area wide but the stronger winds will favor high terrain areas along and east of the central mtn chain Fri aftn. Daytime RH values will come up Fri but downsloping winds will keep things a bit drier in the east. Fri night-Sat...Wetting precipitation with ample cloud cover will be persistent central and west followed by strong winds central and east as the second wave impacts the state. Another short term upper level ridge with a dry mid level intrusion will build over the state Sat night into Sun before the final wave hammers the state Mon. The 3rd and final wave will enter the state early next week as snow showers impact much of the forecast area except the eastern plains due to downsloping winds. Extended models still indicate part of the final wave breaking off and hovering over the area leading to additional showers and cooler temperatures. Vent rates will deteriorate across the NE/NC areas but remain good to excellent areawide Sat, before deteriorating central and west Sun, becoming spotty on Mon, with improvements central and east Tues. 32 && .ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Winter Storm Watch from Friday morning through Saturday evening for the following zones... NMZ502-506-508-510>514-516. Winter Storm Watch from Friday afternoon through Saturday evening for the following zones... NMZ526. && $$ 44