231 FXUS62 KMHX 171658 AFDMHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 1158 AM EST Tue Jan 17 2017 .SYNOPSIS... A warm front will lift through Eastern North Carolina today, then a cold front will move through Wednesday. High pressure will briefly build over the area Thursday, then another front will move through Friday. A strong frontal system will impact the area Sunday night and Monday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... As of 630 AM Tue...Latest sfc analysis shows 1025mb high pressure anchored along the east coast, with warm front to the south. High pressure will continue to shift off the east coast today, as warm front lifts north through Eastern NC. Widespread low clouds this morning, with some patchy fog possible inland. Southerly flow will develop behind the warm front this afternoon, allowing clouds to scatter out a bit and temps to warm. Still looks warm today, but lowered temps from previous forecast a degree or two, given widespread cloud cover early. Low level thickness values and developing southerly flow support highs in the upper 50s to mid 60s. Though some upper 60s will be possible across the SW zones this afternoon if low clouds are able to scatter out. Isolated showers possible today, with the warm front, and then ahead of an approaching cold front this afternoon. Will continue sc mention, mainly across the northern tier. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY/... As of 245 AM Tue...A cold front will approach from the WNW overnight. Shower chances increase, with best chances across the northern half of the forecast area. Will continue likely pops across the northern tier, and chance south. Confidence is low at this time, but areas of sea fog could develop this evening and overnight, with southwesterly flow and rising dewpoints. Mild overnight with cloud cover, precip and SW flow. Lows in the 50s. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 3 AM Tuesday, an omega block at the mid-levels over the southwestern United States will keep the southeast in a mild airmass through much of the next week. Some disturbances in the mid-level flow coupled with weak cold fronts, will lead to enhanced rain chances Wednesday, Friday with a stronger system to bring more widespread rain Sunday night into Monday. Wednesday...a surface coldfront will cross the region Wednesday afternoon coupled with a strong mid-level shortwave moving just north of our CWA. Expect a good coverage of showers and have continued PoPs in the high chance to likely category, with the highest probabilities near the coast. With a weak ribbon of instability indicated across the southern CWA, have added a slight chance of thunderstorms for Wednesday. Temperatures Wednesday will be quite warm, well into the 60s with some lower 70s possible inland. Wednesday night through Thursday...High pressure will briefly build along the Atlantic Coast leading to slightly cooler temperatures and dry conditions. Highs on Thursday will be several degrees cooler than Wednesday, ranging in the 50s to lower 60s. Thursday night through Friday night...A strong mid-level shortwave will move across the region coupled with an increase in deeper Atlantic moisture, leading to another round of showers moving into the western CWA late Thursday night and across our CWA Friday into Friday evening. Saturday and Saturday night...This will be another transitional day between systems as skies will be partly sunny with increased clouds late Saturday night. Temperatures remain above normal. Sunday through Tuesday...A very dynamic system is expected to evolve as the omega block over the Southwestern United States breaks down and the mid-level low and attendant surface low moves across the Tennessee and Ohio Valley. This will increase the low- level moisture into our region as set up a chance of widespread showers. The low-level flow becomes strongly backed to the southeast Monday, so some potential would exist for severe weather if any instability can develop. Way too early to make that determination at this point. Temperatures will remain very mild for January through the period. && .AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Short Term /through Wed/... As of 1155 AM Tue...Widespread sub VFR cigs cont inland but high res guidance shows them rapidly eroding from S to N next few hrs as SW flow develops so expect VFR shortly after 18/19Z. Cont mainly VFR overnight...bulk of guidance tries to lower to IFR but decent SW flow ahead of front shld limit lower cigs/fog. Do expect sct to numerous shra late tonight thru first half of Wed with likely some pds of sub VFR cigs or vsbys. Conditions will improve from midday on in wake of front with drier air leading to diminishing clouds. Cont low level wind shear mention later tonight as SW low lvl jet crosses ahead of front. Long Term /Wednesday Night through Saturday/... As of 310 AM Tuesday, Weak high pressure builds quickly Wednesday night and Thursday with VFR conditions expected. Another round of showers crosses the region late Thursday night through Friday with periods of sub-VFR conditions again expected, before again improving Saturday, the transitional day between systems. && .MARINE... Short Term /through tonight/... As of 630 AM Tue...Latest obs show N/E winds 5-10 kt with seas 2-3 feet. Pleasant boating conditions expected today with increasing SW winds tonight. A warm front will lift north through the waters today, with winds becoming southerly this afternoon. Initiated SCA for the waters South of Oregon Inlet late tonight/Wed morning for gusty SW winds and building seas. Gusty SW winds 15-25kt expected to develop ahead of the cold front tonight, with seas responding and building to 4-6 feet early Wed morning, south of Oregon Inlet. Confidence is low at this time, but areas of sea fog could develop early this evening and overnight...making for hazardous conditions. Long Term /Wednesday through Saturday/... As of 315 AM Tuesday, gusty W/NW winds and rough seas will continue behind a cold front into late Wednesday night before subsiding as weak high pressure builds across the waters Thursday into early Friday. Strong low pressure will pass across the Ohio and Tennessee Valley region Friday night through Saturday with a weaker surface low moving east of our coastal waters. Winds will veer to SE Friday then around to NW Saturday as the low passes, but speeds should remain at or below 20 knots, but seas may briefly reach 6 feet late Friday night into early Saturday. && .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 8 PM EST Wednesday for AMZ152-154. Small Craft Advisory from 5 AM to 5 PM EST Wednesday for AMZ156-158. && $$ SYNOPSIS...CQD NEAR TERM...CQD SHORT TERM...CQD LONG TERM...CTC AVIATION...RF/CTC MARINE...CTC/CQD