206 FXUS62 KTAE 152255 AFDTAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tallahassee FL 555 PM EST Sun Jan 15 2017 .AVIATION [Through 00Z Tuesday]... VFR this evening. Overnight, low clouds and fog will move into SW GA from the Atlantic side. Local guidance shows a high probability of LIFR or below conds at VLD and lower probs at ABY. Will follow suit with LIFR around dawn at VLD and ABY with IFR at TLH. ECP and DHN will remain VFR. After 15Z, all sites will be VFR. Winds will remain light and from the southeast && .PREV DISCUSSION [303 PM EST]... .NEAR TERM [Through Tonight]... Mild weather will continue tonight with low-level easterly flow and an upper ridge in place. Will see patchy fog once again around sunrise, spreading from east to west across the region through the night. Best chance for dense fog will likely be across the eastern half of the forecast area. .SHORT TERM [Monday Through Tuesday Night]... A broad, low-amplitude upper level ridge will continue to build over the southeastern CONUS through this period. At lower levels, light southeasterly flow will prevail under a generally weak pressure pattern as high pressure remains centered in the western Atlantic and a low pressure center moves northeastward through the Midwest. Under the southeasterly flow, moisture will gradually increase across portions of our area, mainly the FL Panhandle and southeastern AL where PWAT values should reach/exceed 1" by Monday and Tuesday. Modest isentropic lift is also anticipated over these areas, and as a result slight chances of rain showers will occur each day. Mild weather for January will continue, with highs in the 70s and lows in the 50s. .LONG TERM [Wednesday Through Sunday]... A more active weather pattern will develop during this period, as increasing moisture from Wednesday through Thursday (PWAT values up to 1.5" in some areas) will lead to chances of showers across our area each day. On Wednesday afternoon, isolated thunderstorms can't be ruled out with modest instability (generally 200-500 J/kg SBCAPE) developing with daytime heating. However, lack of sufficient forcing with a quasi-stationary front well to our north and little isentropic lift should keep chances fairly low during this period. On Friday, a slightly higher chance of showers is expected as an upper level shortwave passes just to our northwest, moisture continues to increase, and isentropic lift also develops across our area. Isolated thunderstorms are possible Friday, mainly across the FL Panhandle and SE Alabama where modest instability will develop. During the weekend, a highly amplified upper level trough will push eastward across the central and eastern CONUS, with its base expected to dip southward into the northern Gulf of Mexico. Downstream of this feature, moisture will continue to increase as southerly flow should push PWAT values above 1.5". In addition, a quasi-stationary front is projected to stall over/near our northern CWA throughout the weekend, providing forcing in the moist airmass. As a result, showers are likely across most of our area on Saturday and Sunday, along with scattered thunderstorms as CAPE values increase to 500-1000 J/kg across our area. While ample uncertainty is present since it is still a week away, a strong low-mid level jet could enhance bulk shear values across parts of our area, and the latest GFS and ECMWF runs both show an intensifying surface low moving northward through Alabama from Sunday afternoon through the evening. Combined with some instability, this could produce strong to severe thunderstorms across parts of our area if this pattern develops. Warmer than normal temperatures will continue through the entire period across our area. Highs will be in the 70s each day, with lows ranging from the 50s to lower 60s. .MARINE... Winds of 10 to 15 knots will result in seas ranging from 2 to 4 feet across most of our marine zones through the next few days. Nearshore eastern zones will see winds mainly from 5 to 10 knots and seas of 1 to 2 feet. .FIRE WEATHER... Hazardous fire weather conditions are not expected over the next several days. .HYDROLOGY... Rainfall chances will increase during the middle and later parts of the week, but no significant rain is expected through Thursday, with no flooding concerns through this time. Periods of heavier rain are possible from Friday through next weekend. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Tallahassee 53 76 53 77 56 / 0 0 0 0 10 Panama City 58 73 58 73 62 / 0 10 0 20 20 Dothan 54 76 55 77 60 / 0 10 0 20 20 Albany 54 77 54 78 58 / 0 0 0 10 20 Valdosta 54 76 54 78 56 / 0 10 0 0 10 Cross City 53 78 54 78 54 / 0 0 0 0 10 Apalachicola 57 70 57 71 61 / 0 0 0 0 10 && .TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GA...None. AL...None. GM...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...Camp SHORT TERM...Lahr LONG TERM...Lahr AVIATION...Scholl MARINE...Lahr FIRE WEATHER...Harrigan HYDROLOGY...Lahr